The election is just beginning, and we have long way to go. DeSantis twitter introduction was hardly a winning one, but it will be long forgotten months down the road, but Trump has all the advantages for now as the polls shows.
His lead in the poll began with the Bragg indictment in New York for yet another fake crime and for many Republicans, it was nothing more than a political attack. Trump is under legal siege from the special prosecutors and in Atlanta for interfering with 2020 election. As I wrote in America at the Abyss, Will America Survive, “The battle to see Trump punished will continue a state level and New York City and Biden’s Justice Department will certainly carry on their own jihad against Trump and his family. There is a precedence for this as Franklin Roosevelt pursued members of the Hoover administration—and. in particular Andrew Mellon– legally and modern-day Democratic Party is even more nasty, and Joe Biden will not lose sleep over his DOJ or some state attorney general pursuing the Trump family until they find something to jail him or members of his family or bankrupt them. For many Democrats, Trump was an affront to them, and it is their attention to wipe out any aspect of Trumpism.”
The reality is that for many in GOP, DeSantis before 2024 was the heir to Trump conservatism. For many he was supposed to wait his turn and allow Trump to be coronated, but DeSantis decided it was the right time now. Let be blunt, Trump legal troubles, no matter how deserved, will take a toll on his popularity and ability to reach beyond his base.
The good news if Trump becomes radioactive due to his legal issues, the good news that many of Trump supporters would be willing to support DeSantis. For many right now, Trump is the number one guy, but DeSantis is their alternative.
DeSantis showed his proficiency in a serious crisis, managing to keep his state’s economy afloat while outperforming Democrat governors Andrew Cuomo and Gavin Newsom throughout the pandemic. DeSantis’s goal of returning Florida to normal succeeded because he understood the virus and how best to deal with its aftermath by first concentrating on protecting the most vulnerable. His ability to vaccinate his citizens quickly compared favorably to many of his governor counterparts.
DeSantis combined competence with a drive and vision of how to tame the virus and get people back to work and children back to school. While many governors chose control and economic restrictions, DeSantis moved toward a freer economy. The one lesson for Republicans and conservatives that DeSantis teaches is not to depend upon the experts. DeSantis realized quickly that Dr. Anthony Fauci and others overestimated the lethality of the virus and underestimated the economic devastation of the lockdown. Others like Dr. Scott Atlas, Dr. John Ioannidis, Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, and Martin Kulldorff felt the lockdowns beyond the initial fifteen days in March and April 2020 would produce more deaths over the long term and damage the fabric of society. The price of lockdown would be too high, they contended, and DeSantis joined the lockdown skeptics. As it turned out, much of the criticism the lockdown skeptics made early in the pandemic proved valid and DeSantis demonstrated that the strategy they recommended was more effective than the punitive lockdown strategy. He also showed the politicization of the scientific class and the need to go beyond them to get better science to base policy on.
For Republicans, DeSantis showed that when given advice from experts, verify what they are saying is actually true and the policy recommendations they propose will not prove disastrous. The second lesson DeSantis provides is that. if the leadership class is wrong on an issue, challenge their advice and do not give in. DeSantis’s success in the pandemic like other Republican governors, including Kristi Noem, points the way for a new Republican Party that will combine conservative and free market principles and anchor those free market conservative principles to the new populism to build upon the Trump coalition.
The original key to winning 2016 was for Republicans and conservatives to create an alliance that combines the concerns of diverse groups, including those who are concerned for gun rights, privacy rights, and those who fear the loss of religious freedom, in stopping expanding government while increasing economic freedom and economic opportunity. This coalition appeared threatened by Donald Trump’s national populism but as the 2016 election proceeded, Trump adopted many of the Republican Party’s ideas about reforming government spending and tax policies that promoted growth and opportunity. The Republican candidates who articulated a message of A Fair Opportunity to Succeed put themselves in the best position to win whether nationally, statewide, or in Congressional districts.
Trump showed that his populism can be combined with traditional free market ideas. His ideas on foreign policy was actually a return to what George W Bush campaigned in 2000, a more modest policy before 9/11. Trump view was not to expand conflict but to avoid them and reduce the present commitments. DeSantis is moving in the same direction.
Polls are not conclusive at this point. More recent polls show Trump taking a small lead over Biden but since the 2022 midterm, Biden is essentially tied with both Trump and DeSantis. In spite of Biden’s unfavorable rating, he is still within striking distance of both. This is one of those races that will change America and GOP must be right with their choices. Trump legal issues will impact his own standing as we move into 2024 and is there a time when one more indictment is one indictment too far?
The Donelson Files 