Update on Covid

A couple of weeks ago, I reviewed data on Covid and most folks totally missed what I was saying. I am going to start with unemployment to show my point that the economic restrictions and lockdown did more damage than the virus itself.

Of top ten states, 100% GOP governors, 72% of the top 25, 65% of states at national average or lower. Democrats had 65% of states in bottom half of LOWER half and 91% of the bottom 11.

The result GOP states unemployment were significantly lower!!!!!! Overall 4.4 for GOP states and 6.4 Democratic states!!!! We viewed GOP and Democratic in two ways plus we compared bigger GOP and Democratic states.

Now there is very little difference in death per capital when all studies looked at. We are talking 6 per 100,000.

Bottom line, GOP states had a SIGNIFICANTLY LESS UNEMPLOYMENT BUT THERE WAS VERY LITTLE DIFFERENCE DIFFERENT IN DEATH PER CAPITA!!! END OF PART ONE

Wilfred Reiley has done three studies on lockdowns and found the following:

1. Unemployment in both non lockdown and Republican states lower than lockdown and Democratic states.

2. Lower bankruptcy in non-lockdown states per capita More below

3. Lower death per capita for GOP and non-lockdown states but no significant difference.

4. Blacks were more likely to die in Democratic states and lockdown states. Reilly looked at different variables including density which he rated a significant variable.

Texas is higher when adjusted. Average age of major states

Red states have slightly older population.

When comparing major states, these states were similar in demographics but Republican states had slightly more blacks and Hispanics.

Lockdown failures and economic restrictions failed to stem the infections and there was very little difference in death per capita regardless of variables used. Unemployment were significantly lower in Republican states so showing the failure of the lockdown

Republican states had significantly lower unemployment. This should show policy makers that our economic shortcomings are not due to the virus but to economic plans and plan to combat the virus.

School children are seeing setback in their education and many younger people are being killed by drug overdose and suicide, and many are not getting treated for chronic diseases or screened. There are studies showing that many have died or will died prematurely.

These deaths totals exceeds death by Corona virus. Our policies have been a disaster and have not stem infection but added significant damage to society.

Lockdown failures and economic restrictions failed to stem the infections and there was very little difference in death per capita regardless of variables used. Unemployment were significantly lower in Republican states so showing the failure of the lockdown.

Issues with Pandemic defense.

Here is the problem with the Lockdown and economic restrictions argument. First my opponents have yet to come to grips of the damage our response to overall society.

I haven’t even touched on other impact including additional suicides, drug overdose increases, chronic diseases not being treated, delayed in screenings for cancer and other diseases. There are more than enough data to show more people have died or will PREMATURELY DIE.

One critic wants us to take New York out as outlier, now that is cherry picking. When reviewing bigger states run by GOP and Democrat governors, we found Demographics, density and age were similar. Not only that the Democratic states may have had slight advantages.

States like Illinois and Pennsylvania have similar per capita death data to similar Republican states like Florida, Georgia, Texas and Ohio. And they have higher unemployment due to their policies.

So unless you can defend the higher unemployment by Democrat states (we are talking 30% higher on the average, look at the data ) was worth the sacrifice or the delay in opening the schools, the increase suicide and drug overdoses, then you have no legitimate argument.

Lockdown and economic restrictions in the loss of freedom, loss jobs and businesses failed in stemming the virus. That is not even no longer debatable.

What a good exchange look likes

Had a great exchange with Jason twitter and here is the exchange.

Jason: You’re definitely in the league of cherry-picking and manipulating data to support your cognitive bias, and no I am not in that league with you…agreed. Yet, your rebuttal doesn’t actual address my point. Redirecting the argument is not a “rebuttal”. Try again

Tom: I did rebut your arguments and that others. You have failed to respond to my arguments that the cost of lockdowns have been worse that dealing with the virus. Thanks for the response and will use your shallow thinking on my timeline on the failure of your thought process.

From here the tone changes

Jason: That is a different argument, and one I actually agree with you on. My point was in your depiction of infection and death rates. You disingenuously discount the fact that comparing Dem states (that have the most densely populated cities) is a false equivalence to Rep states.

Tom: I referred to studies that dealt with density of population, noted that many GOP bigger states have density and demographics to bigger blue states. Illinois and Pennsylvania are similar to Florida and other red states in per capita death.

Jason: When you use misleading data to build toward your ultimate point, your intended argument loses it’s validity and credibility. It’s unfortunate because you make some valid points…but it seems you need to take classes in argument structure.

Tom: You have missed my entire argument namely lockdowns failed to stem the infection and had higher cost to society. That was my argument and your friends failed to see that. Since you agree with them on this We may not be far apart

Jason: I’m not sure who my friends are that you are referring to. I agree with you that draconian restrictions did more harm than good in the grand scheme of things, but I think it’s a more nuance argument than what you are presenting.

Jason: I hear you. Twitter wars are futile, but I think we all need to be careful when making “seemingly” ideologic points

Tom: I was referring to Sean and Dennis who fail to see my larger point or respond to it like you are now doing. Normally I avoid twitter wars but since you are willing to look at overall data, this was worth while exchange. But I will add there are individuals like Andy Slavett who have refuses to see the damage of the lockdown.

Tom: My data is not misleading, and my argument is sound. Trust me, I had others validate my overall data. How would you make the argument?

Jason My argument, specific to population density, is that you cannot aptly compare a city like New York or Chicago to even the largest cities in red states. And even if you could, then your data should compare those cities as opposed to the states, otherwise the data is diluted

Tom: Good point but I chose states and we compared them in different ways as to ensure the best numbers possible

Tom: I am going to apologize to you since you understood my arguments but had serious question about methodology and allowed me to flush it out. Have a good day.

Jason: I appreciate that and thank you as well.

Jason had serious question about the data and we discussed my methodology. Unfortunately, these discussion end up in name calling. Certainly when some of tweeters question your intellect, do you get into a pissing contest? Jason challenge me and decided to go for it. Interesting conversation went from insults to serious discussion on methodology. I defended my methodology and he understood what I was doing. He made reasonable recommendations but I stand by our methodology and the general point. For me, it is not about just death per capita but the overall impact of the lockdown and economic restrictions.

Tweet September 5th


R
eceived interesting comments from all sides but no one has bothered to discuss the wide difference in unemployment and ask or answer the question, was the trade off of the lockdowns and economic restrictions worth the higher unemployment?

Updated data on states: among GOP governors, the average death per capita was 184 to 180 for Democratic states. That represent 2% difference. Top 8 populous states, There is 221 deaths per 100,000 in Democratic states vs 204 in GOP states. This represent a 8% difference-GOP.S

No real statistic difference in deaths but major differences in unemployment. Proof the Lockdowns failed in saving lives but economic damage was far worse.

Democrat run states had 20 per 100,000 less death but 2300 per 100,000 more unemployed. Overall 2 per 100,000 more people died from Covid in GOP states but Democrats had 2000 per 100,000 unemployed. That is the trade off.212S

Updated data on states: among GOP governors, the average death per capita was 184 to 180 for Democratic states. That represent 2% difference. Top 8 populous states, There is 221 deaths per 100,000 in Democratic states vs 204 in GOP states. This represent a 8% difference-GOP.

Put it this way. Among 50 states, there was 1600 per 100,000 more people unemployed under Democrat governors, 2100 per 100,000 in most populous states, and among Democratic control states, 2300 per 100,000 more unemployed for an average of 2000 per 100,000 per unemployed.

In the first study, 4 per 100,000 died from Covid in GOP states but they had stronger economy with 1600 more per 100,000 employed. Among bigger states, the GOP governors have lower death and lower unemployment.

Censorship

Alex Berenson is no longer on twitter because he dares to offer alternatives to the groupthink about Covid. While I didn’t always agree with Alex, I did find what he tweeted worth reading simply because he reviewed data and found many flaws in those data.

Like many of us, Berenson question the science behind the lockdowns and the economic restrictions that accompany the lockdowns. Berenson was part of a movement, proving the futility of the lockdown.

In May of 2020, I came out in favor of the living with the virus since I viewed the damage the lockdown would prove worse than the damage from the virus. Here we are year and half later, and we lockdown skeptics have been proven right.

More young people have died from suicide and drug overdoses than the virus. Studies have shown how many are not seeking treatment for diseases, thus adding to death totals. In a recent study, 17% indicated they would avoid to seek treatment because of the fear of Covid. This is one of many studies showing the impact of the lockdown and fear of Covid

Reality one: We are looking at a virus that kills over all 2 to 4 per 1000. Contrast this to average flu season which the IFR was 1 per 1000 and we have had pandemics like in 1957 which killed 2 to 3 per 1000, similar to what we are seeing now. Below survival rate by age

This is a virus that hits the oldest and most vulnerable with underlying condition.

As this chart shows, younger patients are more likely to die from the flu than Corona virus.

The economic damage has been immense. Those states who lockdown or had economic restrictions, ended up with higher unemployment.

As you can see, GOP states and non-lockdown states had lower unemployment overall. This has been consistent from the beginning of the the pandemic. We have failed to see the cost of the lockdowns and unemployment.

There are studies that question the efficacy of the masks and the society cost of the vaccine passport. Europe is reducing or eliminating masks mandates for students whereas we still debating on mask mandates despite the science. Skeptics are right and censoring those who are right is hardly beneficial but feeds in the distrust that is accompanying the present debate.

Working toward the future

A few thoughts about the Democratic and Republican Party. For Republicans, it is a question in the foreseeable is whether Trump will run in 2024 or a new generation of Republicans take hold.

The problem with Trump is that while he garner the base, he brings out the opponents as well. Are we ready for yet another 78 year old candidate after the Biden years? And can Trump take the Party forward, learn from his mistakes, or will he be unable to control his worse instincts and unable to broaden the coalition? While we made progress within the minority communities, Cygnal pollster Brent Buchanan noted, “This trendline is much clearer than the previous graph, showing where Democrats are gaining in areas that are growing and where Republicans are picking up support in stagnating or declining counties.” We lost a good portion of suburban voters in 2020 and can GOP recapture many of the suburban voters, the GOP is will have difficulty finding a permanent majority.

Democrats have their own problems since they are the Socialist Party of America and in the first six months, their proposals is failing and could lead to a complete collapse of the economy. While most Democrats would deny they are socialist, their proposals are definitely the most radical.

Among those things include:

  1. Elimination of industries, like the fossil fuels and force industries to manufacture what the government wants like electric cars.
  2. Open Border, allowing illegal immigration and weakening country identity.
  3. Theories like Critical race theories will undermine what America should be and teach a future generation that America is a racist society but yet, force America to live in a separated society by class and race.
  4. Taxing the productive part of society, expanding the welfare state and spending trillion of dollars while seeing inflation increasing.
  5. Biden is begging OPEC to increase production while he shuts our own energy production.
  6. Afghanistan proving to be a big disaster and that has strengthen our enemies while upsetting our allies.

Democrats have shown that their philosophy has been a complete failure, but GOP has to convince America they have a plan to change America for the best.

As I mention before, what we have seen with Biden would have been seen with any other Democrats.

Biden blows it

From Nigel Farage,

“But if [terror attacks] start to happen again and we start to think, well, how do we go out again and try and stop these cells that are spreading international terror? How can we do it with the Americans? How can we do it with an ally that is treating us with contempt and betrayed us and into the bargain, many of our own citizens…Certainly, if it’s a Biden or Harris administration, honestly, there is no way, there is no way a British parliament right now would vote for military cooperation with America led by this administration. And that’s a very sad thing to say, because since 1917, the UK and America have been side by side in virtually every major conflict. We’ve been the closest allies in terms of military action, in terms of intelligence sharing, in terms of culture, in terms of business…“You couldn’t have a better ally in the world. Right at the moment, I’m sorry, but there’s no way we could enter into another operation with you.”

Biden has now managed to screw up our closet ally. Good job Joe.

Biden is the symptom

Biden is the symptom. While many in the Democratic Party are shocked by what has happened in Afghanistan and we have seen several attempts by intelligences and military off the record leaks that we told Joe what would happen, and even a few in the media are complaining but the reality is that Biden bungling of Afghanistan was disaster that entire leadership class participated. Biden’s policies are turning into disaster on many fronts but Afghanistan

Biden administration as it is presently constituted is doom to failure for the following reason.

  1. The economic plan is based on increase spending, loose monetary policy with increase taxes on productive of society along with the expansion of the welfare state. Where is the economic growth coming from? Inflation is too much money chasing too few goods and Biden’s plan will not produce enough goods to soak up the loose money in the system and thus the inflation will continue.
  2. The energy plan is based on illusionary combination that we can produce all of energy with wind and solar while eliminating fossil fuels. This is impossible as any serious economist or energy specialist will tell you. Note the word serious. Reducing our domestic production has increased the cost of energy and going green will add to increases. https://www.americanexperiment.org/reports/doubling-down-on-failure-how-a-50-percent-by-2030-renewable-energy-standard-would-cost-minnesota-80-2-billion and https://www.americanexperiment.org/reports/not-in-our-backyard Biden is now begging OPEC to increase production. OPEC said no. The fact that Biden asked OPEC for increased oil production shows that even Biden team knows eliminating fossil fuels is impossible.
  3. Crime has increased in major cities and the defunding and cutting the police has failed.
  4. Foreign policy has been a disaster and Afghanistan is proof of that.

Biden’s policy would have been disaster under any of the leading Democratic Presidential contenders in 2020. Their policies would have followed Biden’s. Bernie Sanders wrote the 3.5 trillion dollar stimulus bill and Alexandra Cortez wrote the Biden’s version of Green New Deal. President Sanders or President Harris would not have done anything difference on points 1 through 3 and so far, Harris foreign policy trips have not been a model of success. Her trip to Central America was a failure and her managing of the border issues and illegal immigration has been a disaster, only now to be overshadowed by Afghanistan.

The only issue is that maybe another Democrat would have not botched it as badly but the overall foreign policy would have followed similar path.

Biden is a symptom of the complete failure of our leadership class and should be seen as such. Replacing Biden with Harris won’t matter at this point since the policies will be the same.

Afghanistan our options and time to review the mistakes

We had two choices with Afghanistan.

  1. From Austin Bay, “Understand that I think that since 9/11, America’s essential mission in Afghanistan has been what I call Guard Duty Writ Large. I first used that description in 2012. To protect U.S. national security at home and abroad, America had to attack and damage militant Islamic terrorist organizations. That meant denying them bases in anarchic regions, like Yemen, Somalia and Afghanistan. Denying doesn’t mean we have to occupy those places. It definitely doesn’t mean we need to engage in nation building and culture-changing — those are mega-challenge…We can strike Yemen and Somalia from the sea. Landlocked Afghanistan presents a problem. The closest air bases are six to seven hours away. Guard duty in Afghanistan means — or meant — maintaining an on-the-ground presence, primarily to support Afghan forces and refuel allied aircraft, but also to occasionally conduct U.S. air and ground raids on high-value targets throughout the region. The special operations raid that killed Osama Bin Laden in his Pakistan compound was launched from Afghanistan..Many in the defense and intelligence community agree that guard duty was the essential mission. Some argued nation building would ultimately give pro-democracy Afghans the tools to guard themselves. We did try that. Afghan corruption undermined the effort.” Bay’s point is that we should have kept a small group and a base to protect our interest and this doesn’t mean nation building.
  2. The second was to defeat the enemy which we did and leave, letting it be known if we will come back if you allow your country to be used as a terrorist base. Jordan Schachtel made this point in a couple of pieces and noted from a UK Guardian report, ” The Taliban, which ruled over Afghanistan under its Islamic Emirate banner, was seeing its territory facing constant bombardment from U.S. fighter jets. American forces made quick work of the most threatening elements of jihadist defences, having successfully decimated virtually every major target assigned to them in a week’s time. In this poverty-stricken land, populated by mud huts, subsistence farms, and mountain ranges, we’re talking about mostly weapons depots and crude militant bases. The Taliban had witnessed the full wrath of the most powerful military in the world, and wanted the devastation to come to an end…In a series of events that seems to have been entirely swept into the banned books section of history, Taliban leadership decided to reach out to the Americans. They offered up the one target U.S. forces seemed to be unable to locate: none other than Osama Bin Laden himself. ” There may have been a time in the beginning a deal with the Taliban could have been had including the capture of Bin Laden. We could have our deal to protect our interest and avoid a 20 year failure. Austin Bay added, “It didn’t have to be this way. A well-executed withdrawal would have saved their lives and perhaps saved the anti-Taliban government. The acronym is NEO — Noncombatant Evacuation Operation — “the departure of civilian noncombatants and nonessential military personnel from danger in an overseas country to a designated safe haven … The U.S. military is highly skilled at NEO. Even a NEO involving an area as large as Afghanistan could have been planned and prepared in 30 to 45 days if the Joint Chiefs of Staff had coordinating power and the State Department arranged for temporary refugee housing in third-country safe havens. The decision to withdraw from the huge air base at Bagram was utterly stupid, at least until threatened Afghans were extracted.”
  3. China and Russia now controls Central Asia, and we have no real bases in the region to conduct anti terrorist if needed. As JD Johannes, an associate of mine, noted on my podcast, the Chinese will not make the same mistakes we made and end up bribing the Taliban while gaining control of trillion dollars worth minerals.

We had two choices, one was to leave guard duty which meant continue troops but not enough to nation building or we retreat orderly and get our citizens and those who aided our efforts. Nation building was a failure and our retreat was a disaster and that is on this administration beginning with Joe Biden. We can argue what went wrong with our Middle East policy over the past two decades and need to.

Bob Gates, who served both Democratic and Republicans administration, observed about Joe Biden that he has never been right on a major issue in his career and he did oppose Obama’s effort to eliminate Bin Laden in 2011. This merely reinforces what Gates noted, Joe Biden is not a deep thinker and not often right. Joe Biden has botched this badly.

Biden, why we should not be surprised.

I am not surprised by Biden’s incompetence, since he has been man of mediocrity all his political career. Nor am I surprised that we have witnessed a lack of empathy by the President about the Afghans allies left behind along with the thousands of Americans still in Kabul. Anyone who has followed his career would have seen this.

One argument I heard from never Trumpers is that we would see a return of normality and standards from Biden and Biden’s loss of his first wife and daughter in a car accident along with his son death in war enhanced his empathy for others. One was forgotten that while it was tragic that he lost his wife and daughter, what he did to the individual, Curtis Dunn, involved in the accident was evil. For years, he insinuate that Dunn, who involved in the crash was “drunk” but this was a lie. As the Curtis Dunn’s daughter observed, ““I don’t think an apology set the story straight but I do feel that (Biden) needs to make some kind of statement that he was very wrong for saying that a trucker drank his lunch instead of eating it.” Biden added another victim to this, Curtis Dunn who forever branded a drunken driver and responsible for Biden’s wife death.

As one new story reported, “Delaware Superior Court Judge Jerome O. Herlihy, who oversaw the police investigation as chief prosecutor, said there was no evidence supporting Biden’s claim and Dunn was cleared of any wrongdoing…“The rumor about alcohol being involved by either party, especially the truck driver (Dunn), is incorrect.” Dunn stayed and attempted to save Biden’s wife and daughter life and may have saved the two boys, Hunter and Beau. Biden never needed to have lied about the incident on the campaign trail.

Throughout his career, he was never above calling voters stupid, out of shape, fat and liars but that was Joe being Joe. (No one ever stated when Trump insulted folks, this was Trump being Trump.)

I won’t comment upon Biden’s mental state only to say that when compared to past performance, there is no doubt the 78 year old Biden has his fast ball when it comes to speaking. His performance over the two weeks has not been reassuring, leaving Allies confused and enemies excited in Biden’s incompetence.

The reality is that Biden’s incompetence will have dangerous consequences for the United States and the West and his inability to think through the steps needed to not make a competed disaster out of this.

As I observed in my upcoming book, Biden major accomplishment was to figure out how enrich his family and himself but being a corrupt politician is hardly a accomplishment to brag about. What he has never been is someone who ever been consider much of thinker on public policies. If anything as I also noticed in my upcoming book, Biden is symptom of the collapse of our political class as he was consider the best the Democrats could muster to defeat Trump.