Red Driven economy part two

As I stated in the past, this is a red state driven job recovery as Red States unemployment are significantly lower than Blue states.

Biggest threat is the Biden economic plan with surging inflation that is wiping out the wage gain and spending plans that will slow the economy further than the recent 2% GDP recent data show.

The Biden plan is not about expanding the economic pie but dividing the pie as present. The result will be slow economic growth, stagflation or recession. The Feds are now tapering off and giving signals that it won’t print the money to cover the increase spending. With inflation going into 2022, high deficits, the economy will either slow down or simply slip into recession. Best thing for Biden and Democrats to do is nothing, No more spending, no tax increases, the economy will recover.

Red state driven economy part one

The number of jobs by month from May 202. From DOL, “Nonfarm employment has increased by 18.2 million since a recent trough in April 2020 but is down by 4.2 million, or 2.8 percent, from its pre-pandemic level in February 2020. ” means about 80% of jobs have been recovered.

The recovery that begins in May 2020, continues, call it the continuation of Trump recovery into the Biden years.

Unemployment went from 14.4 to 4.6% that is good news. We have averaged 1,200,000 million jobs created since last May. Trump seven months averaged 1,500,000 jobs per month, Biden 500,000 plus per month, good news for both administration. This is the good news.

Climate change thoughts 11-7-2021 and 11-8-2021

No it is foolish thing to have economy based on 18 to 19th century technology. We have seen in the past 120 years, massive prosperity, and better health worldwide due to fossil fuels and yet in a slightly warming planet that is greener today than decades ago.

The question is that we are feeding more people better diets and no one can dispute that. As countries liberate their economy more freedom has happen to go with prosperity. The real lie is the “capitalist reset” that will mean less growth, less prosperity, more poverty.

I am not supporting economic stupidity or questionable science. There is one solution to any future climate issues that befalls us, innovations from free minds. We are seeing energy shortage and higher energy cost that is pushing many downward due to the bad policies.

Without fossil fuels, we don’t have our quality of life we have today and we won’t have our quality of life if we eliminates fossil fuels. Personally I prefer prosperity.

Trying to compare the tobacco industry to fossil fuels is plain stupidity. Without fossil fuels we don’t our quality of life. Fossil fuels produce wealth and improve our quality of life, allowed us to feed more people better diets and more people escaping poverty.

Virginia Part three

My final observation begins with how Youngkin added to the Trump coalition by running on a Trumpian theme.  He talked not about the economy and his business experience but also cultural issues including opposing Critical Race theories and questioning the wisdom of allowing “boys” into Girls bathroom by showing the result of those policies, rape.   He added those suburbanites we lost in 2020 back to the coalition. 

Youngkin ran on a platform that parents have a say in their children’s education and that he is understand that it is important to control what is taught in the classroom.  There is a cultural war going on and the GOP ran on winning that cultural war. Youngkin showed that you can win on a Trumpian theme without Trump on top of the ticket.  

New Jersey shows that the election battleground has expanded and even blue states are now on the docket.  States like Nevada is within reach and there could be other states up for grab that right now look hopeless but with the right tsunami, this can be changed.  

Also there will be GOP states that could be vulnerable including Iowa and Florida Senate races.   While Grassley looks good but a new candidate has enter the race, Admiral Franken and our own data shows that many voters like Grassley but concern that he is turning 88 and while other polls show Rubio well ahead, our own poll showed vulnerability to Val Demming. 

Virginia shows the GOP coalesced around ideas that can combined the best of the Reagan years and Trump issues.  And that the Democrats are not unified.

One last things, Terry McAuliffee made a crucial mistakes, he told the truth about what he would do as governor.  He made it clear that parents’ children belong to the state and they had no role in what their children are taught.  Normally Democrats are not that blunt on how they are truly governed but McAuliffee told the voter exactly what he thought about parents.  And they voted accordingly.  

Virginia part two

There were so many interesting tidbits about the past election including the Minneapolis rejection of the hard left version of policing (or the lack of policing).  In Minneapolis, the most radical Democrats including Representative Omar and Minnesota Attorney General Ellison campaigned for this but many others more established lefties in Minnesota supposedly oppose this but refuse to come out publicly against it.  They fear the left wing of their own party than the voters. 

In Buffalo, a incumbent mayor got ambushed in the primary and lost to a socialist who wanted to defund the police in Buffalo.  Buffalo is a blue collar Democratic area but as the general election shows, these voters are not crazy.  Mayor Brown decided to run for the mayor race on a write in basis and won by a big margin.  So far his opponent won’t concede but it shows the real divide is not in the GOP, but on the Democrats side.  The Mayor refuse to go slowly into the night and instead decided to fight for his city against a radical candidate.  This was a Democrat vs Democrat battle.  

While the Media concentrate on the impact of Trump on the GOP, they ignore the real battle, the take over of the Democratic party by the socialist wing of the party and so far, they are blaming moderates for the defeats and not their own radical agenda.  The treatment of Sinema and Manchin is showing that there is no role even for very liberal Senators.  (Sinema has already stated that she will support a 1.5 trillion infrastructure on top of other spending but is balking of spending an additional 3.5 trillion. There was time that being for a 1.5 trillion dollars spending plan would make you a liberal in good standing. Maybe these two Senators might want to consider changing Party.)  

As a political operative, I hope that the Democrats listen to their socialist wing and keep pushing their radical agenda since it makes my job easier.  Buffalo showed that many at the grass roots and many minorities are not supporting the more extreme features of the new Democratic socialist party.  (I should point out that Buffalo was not only a Democrat vs Democrat but a black politician vs a black politician. )  

My favorite take is that Youngkin won based on racism and reminds me of a joke when a White businessman, Black marine and Hispanic lawyers walk into a restaurant what do you get?  The next Virginia governor, Lt. Governor and Attorney General.   So who are the real racist?

From Joe Benson

Hi Tom, I saw your post about your view of VA and I wanted to put something else on your radar. One election that might have been overlooked was Seattle. I am originally from WA state so I keep an eye on things to see how much worse they are making it up there and I was quite surprised. Bruce Harrell ran on a Mayoral platform that was about taking action on homelessness and supporting law-enforcement, while he’s far from a Republican those issues were important enough to the electorate to reject his competition. Even more incredible is that they elected Ann Davidson for City Attorney, who is a Trump Republican. I never would have expected that to ever happen in Seattle… but even in a place that is about as far left as you can get, people were fed up!

Virginia lesson one

This was a great effort on all of the GOP to win Virginia and shows the importance of keeping a watchful eye on cheating.  In reviewing Voter Reference data, we still have issues and have to expand our efforts to multiple states in 2022.  If I understand the data, there are 63,000 plus more votes than voters in Virginia but in 2020, these numbers were small percentage of the margin that Trump lost or below MOF (margin of Fraud) for 2020 but these numbers represent a significant portion of the margin that Youngkin and Sears won plus within the MOF of Mijares margin.   You can add in the possibility of illegal voters voting.  A few years ago, Public Legal Foundation found a number of illegal voters who had voted before being removed off the public voting role and data provided by research of Old Dominion University along with my own research foundation demonstrated that numbers of illegal citizens voting were significant.  We showed we can win by the other guy rules but it doesn’t mean we don’t have issues.  I will be curious what we find out about  New Jersey since much of our efforts were concentrated in Virginia and how that turns out.

Many of the states we compete in, including Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania will be conducted by the Democrats rules so obviously this coordination needs to continue as well as passing and enforcing election security rules.  The good news is that we showed that we can win under the worse of conditions and that our vote will count.    Plus it helps that most of the issues are running in our direction.  

Braves Astros

Normally I try to separate politics from sports since sports is my escape but this World Series is the exception. In the first four innings, no political references and Braves are winning 5-0.

It will be interesting to see what happens when the series shifts to Atlanta but the commissioner decided to move the All-Star game from Atlanta to Denver because he didn’t like the Georgia voting law. And moving from a heavily black city to a predominately white city in the name of social justice.

Now Commish may find himself back into Atlanta to award the trophy to the Braves. That will be Karma.

Recovery continues but for how long?

The recent unemployment tells two stories. The first is that unemployment went down to 4.8% and the second, actual job creation was less than 200,000 and below expectations.  The recovery that began in May of 2020 when Trump was President, continues but inflation is now turning into stagflation and the Biden’s economic plan is threatening the recovery.

This recovery and drop in unemployment is Republican driven as Republican states have 30% less unemployment than Democratic states as Democratic states average 17% over the national average and the bottom ten in unemployment are all run by Democratic governors.  Without Republican governors, our unemployment would be even higher since many of these governors open their economy sooner in the face of the pandemic. 

Regardless how you defined a Republican and Democratic States, Republican states out performed Democratic states when it comes to job creation.   

Since May 2020,  the economy has produced an average of 1,200,000 jobs per year with 1.5 million jobs created average from May 2020 to December 2020 as the economy saw unemployment dropped from 14.4 to 6.7, lower than originally predicted.  The economy now has dropped to 4.8 as we have seen an average of 500,000 jobs created. 

The one black cloud over the horizon is stagflation and the Biden economic plan concentrate more on dividing more evenly a stagnant pie as opposed to growing that pie to allow those at the bottom to move up the economic ladder. 

Biden inherited a growing economy and simply allowing the economy to heal while learning to live with the virus, Biden would be farther ahead but alas, he decided to allow the left to take over the agenda, putting the recovery at risk.

Dominic Pino writing in National Review observed, “The Fed’s dual mandate is to maintain low unemployment and low, stable inflation. In the long run, those are both good things for the country, and they are both possible to achieve. In the short run, however, there is a tradeoff between inflation and unemployment… The Fed’s dual mandate is to maintain low unemployment and low, stable inflation. In the long run, those are both good things for the country, and they are both possible to achieve. In the short run, however, there is a tradeoff between inflation and unemployment… But if inflation is not transitory, and unemployment keeps declining, the Fed may wind up in a really tricky situation: It may be forced to contract the money supply and reverse good unemployment numbers in the short run to get inflation back in line.”

The Feds may be facing that choice where inflation needs to be dealt with and this will bring a recession in an economy facing trillions of dollars of debt and deficit.  As it stands now, many families are losing income through inflation.  In a recent analysis, we found that families in Georgia, New Hampshire, and Nevada saw their income decline by 1100 to 1500 dollars due to the rise of inflation.

The recovery is still going on but the recovery is stagnating and stagflation is now in play. 

Lockdown and government restrictions in the area

The lockdowns should be seen as a failure and we have surrendered far too much of our freedom to stop this virus. We adopted measures not seen before in a Pandemic.

Government shut down businesses, schools, vaccine passports and mandates, a loss of freedom for a virus that killed 2 to 4 per 1000.

They failed for the following reasons:

  1. They failed to stop the virus spread and those state who had less restrictions did not see a significant death total per capita vs those states or countries that didn’t.
  2. States with less restrictions had less unemployment, better job creation.
  3. States more open had more children in classes.
  4. The number of screenings for chronic diseases, mental health issues increases shows other health issues were ignored.
  5. One study shows that as many as two people have died or will prematurely die as a result of these policies.

So if the economics falter, more people died from the other cases than the virus and children’s education interrupted. That is not a success but a failure. Those who are responsible for this needs to be defeated.

KC Season Over

Kevin of The Royal Reporter observed, “The Royals were projected by most experts to win anywhere from 70-72 games. They won 74, which was slightly above the pundits’ preseason predictions. Is it a monumental turnaround? Absolutely not. But remember: this Royals team lost 100-plus games in both 2018 and 2019, and finished with a winning percentage in 2020 that would pro-rate out to 70 wins.” He is right in that small improvements were made in the sense, we didn’t finish in last place or that we lost less than 90 games. More was expected.

We finished 38-35 after the All-Star break but still finished overall minus 14 games under .500. There were positive beginning with Nicky Lopez who hit .300 and played great defense. He played like the Lopez in the minor, get on base, steal an occasional base and played great defense. Merrifield hit only .277 but still managed 42 doubles which tied him for number one in the majors, number 4 in hits and number 2 in stolen bases at 40 plus played good defense at second.

Salvy had a great season 48 Hrs, tied for number one in Majors and lead majors in RBI. It may be too much to ask of him to have a similar year but he is still a major player. I have been impressed with Andrew Benintendi, who played good defense in left field and hit 16 homers. Michael Taylor will be back patrolling centerfield and can hit an occasional homer but is only a .240 hitter.

Isabel hit .280 in his brief time with Royals and will compete for an outfield position, and Hunter Dozier hit .277 over his last 30 games, but still wondering if in 2022, will we see the 2019 Dozier or the Dozier of 2020 and first half of the 2021 year?

Then there was the questionable, Ryan O’Hearn kept getting second and third chances but going in 2022, Royals need to say good bye. Here is a thought, McBroom had a nice season in Omaha but he spent only 7 games and 8 at bats. Why didn’t he get more of chance oppose to O’Hearn plus didn’t anyone notice that Frank “The Tank” Swindell had a nice year with Cubs who gave him a solid chance?

The real mystery was pitching where many of the leading minor league prospects came up. Lynch showed potential in the second half of the year but Kowar has yet to show if he is the real thing. Heasley and Zerpa showed potential in their brief stint in Kansas City but they will be in North West Arkansas and Omaha. Singer had some success but there were times that he regressed. He didn’t make the big jump I thought he would and Bubic had nice September. He showed me he is ready for the Majors but the question next year where to place him in the rotation? The best starter was Carlos Hernandez, who went 6-2 and was a pleasant surprise. The real disappointment was Brad Keller who regressed this season at 8-12.

The Royals have a ton of talent pitching in the minors and there was enough to say that we have potential starting rotation but the question is which pitcher survives the cut and which becomes trade bait for more talent?

Barlow, Staumont, Coleman, Bentz, and Tapia showed they could be a solid bull pen. (Bentz had a poor second half of the season so there is questions about him.) There are more talent in the minors to go with this.

Least I forget, Bobby Witt Jr. lead a group of sluggers coming up. He hit.290 in both double A and triple A with 33 homers and 29 stolen bases. He was joined by Pratto who hit 36 homers and a .265 average and M.J. Melendez who added 41 homers and a .288 average. Over the final playoff Triple A run, the Storm Chasers 7-2.

I had this feeling that this was going to be 2013 but alas, we had to satisfied with 74 wins and a fourth place finish.

As for the Central division rivals, Royals went 10-9 against White Sox, 11-8 against Tigers, 10-9 against Twins, and 5-14 against the Indians. They were 35-40 against their central division opponents. You can say that they won three out of four yearly series against Central division opponents but they were dominated by the Indians.