Thanks for joining the Donelson Files, featuring Coco Konski and Tom Donelson
Good company in a journey makes the way seem shorter. — Izaak Walton
Notes Today
What if we are overestimating Covid death, counting deaths of patients with Covid as oppose to because? Colorado has two sets of numbers which ranges from 10 to 20 percent difference in cases they view as because of Covid vs those with Covid (example, a person dies in car accident while having covid is counted as Covid death.)
Florida and Minnesota are saying this number is 40%, others have told me could be half the number. This means we are overestimating Covid death by nearly 50,000 to 240,000 deaths. (Note we are still talking between 270,000 to 410,000 deaths.)
Cases are underestimated. We may be underestimating actual cases by a factor of 6 to 13 which means at least 160,000,000 Americans may have been exposed. The good news is that most people are not sick enough to see a doctor and at least 1/3rds of cases are asymptomatic and at least 90 percent may be mild if not more. Not as lethal as assumed.
IFR is close .2 and this data is based on 80 plus studies worldwide including data provided by WHO and CDC. That means 2/1000 have died. Compared to an average of 1/1000 with the flu but we have had Flu pandemic as lethal or close to as lethal as in 1957, 1968 and 2018.
Lockdowns by government have destroyed more communities and will end up killing more than saving. At least 1,000,000 people will die prematurely due to lockdowns. More than double of what the virus would have killed.
Red States have outperformed Blue States economically, this is no debate as any data from BLS would show. Red State 5% unemployment vs Blue States 6.8% unemployment and bigger red states outperformed bigger blue states.
Nine of Top ten states with lowest unemployment were Red States and the top ten states with least loss of unemployment were Red States.
Overall, Red States had less deaths from the virus vs. Blue States, whether you measure in totality, on a per state basis and per capita basis. So less deaths and better economic performance. Red States win.
All data listed here come from real Science research, government data, economic data and my own research aided by a top research team. I do not do conspiracy theories or manipulated data like my opponents. My data is solid and superior to what you read in mainstream media.
The Great Blue Opening?
California Governor Newsome is now reopening his economy and relaxing his draconian restrictions as California saw big spikes in unemployment as 50,000 jobs disappeared including 117,000 in the bar, restaurant and hospitality business. Since December 2019, a million jobs disappeared and over 1.4 million have signed to recall the governor.
So obviously the governor has decided that maybe living with the virus is better than continuing to trash the economy. While the overall US economy has seen a dropped from 14.4% in April to 6.7% in December, the economy is waning due to the blue state economic restrictions.
Most of the job losses in December came in blue states in bar, restaurant and hospitality industry due to the lockdowns and we will see more tomorrow when state data comes in.
stats: Covid death Red vs Blue states
Total death of Red vs Blue states
Death per state and note Red states less death.
more death per capita in blue states
China National Socialism
In the 1990’s, a good friend told me a few years after the collapse of Soviet Empire that he was surprised how communism ended up as National socialism. National Socialism will not run by small little dudes with funny looking mustaches yelling “Sieg Heil” but leaders in finely tailored suits and look more like a Wall Street banker than a nasty dictator. This is the face of the new Hitler, President Xi.
China has concentration camps that holds millions, they use social media to control the population and President Xi is the George Orwellian 1984 Big Brother. No freedom, and while China Communist Party allows profits to be made but the state controls all and companies may make money, but they serve the state. It is state corporatism and China view itself as the new center of the universe, with all nations bow to Beijing. While I don’t view China’s National socialism means conquest of nations, it does mean that their ideology reign supreme but there is one exception to conquest: Hong Kong and Taiwan which would bring “All of China” under Beijing.
I have asked the question, what will a world be like if China was the most powerful country in the world? It would be a poorer world, less free and we will see other nations or group of nations copy Chinese National socialist movement. We see many of own elites who for years admire China, just listen to Mike Bloomberg own view of China in the primary. Mike Bloomberg has stated that “Well, it’s a question of what is a dictator. They don’t have a democracy in the sense that they have general elections. That is true. They do have a system where a small group of people appoint the head. And they churn over periodically. If you go back and look at the last two or three decades, there have been a number of people that have had the same position that Xi Jinping has.”
China is the modern version of National Socialism, and now this is that moment to ask will we allow China to become the number one power? If China is number one power, only means the United States will decline in both economic power and freedom we take for granted will slowly disappear.
Economics: The coming Biden Recession
If you begin an economic plan of “dealing with inequality” without a plan to expand job creations, you will more inequality and less jobs.
The Biden/Fauci/McConnell/Pelosi recession may be beginning in December. The increase economic regulations by many state governors mostly Democrats along with travel restrictions have slowed down employment which was averaging 1.5 million plus jobs created since May.
The addition 300 per week will bring yearly income up to 41,000 not working, thus encouraging more to stay home which appears to be point. Pay people to stay home and “crushed the virus” as if that worked the first time. Those governors, mostly Republicans, who decrease economic restrictions, did so without increasing death totals to Covid compared to the more restrictive states. It is groundhog day and we are repeating April all over again.
The panic that has ensued has done enough damage to the economic and would have been worse if Trump and many GOP governors didn’t loosen economic restrictions. They performed better economically.
Economic Bias
This is media bias and poor analysis but it is CNN https://msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-economy-trump-will-leave-office-with-a-historically-bad-economic-record/ar-BB1bTlcX?ocid=msedgntp…, those at the bottom, did better under Trump than Obama/Biden. And his mistake was the lockdown which led to 20 million in on month. Since then 70 percent have recovered their job. Operation Warp speed led to new treatments and vaccines. Do these observers prepared to say the lockdown a mistakes and criticize governors mostly Democrats for economic restrictions. If more governors followed Trump advice to open school and open to the economy, the economy would be employed. If Trump been allowed to follow through and been re-elected, we would see a big expansion 2021. This is in jeopardy as Democrat governors are tightening their restrictions. I could go on but this observation doesn’t tell the full story and is crap.
Counting Covid’s Death
Here is interesting thought. How much of the deaths reported are not necessarily caused by Covid but people who die with Covid? In Colorado, they have two set of numbers, one number they report and a second they try more accurately to determine if Covid was the cause.
Colorado data may show 20% of deaths not caused by Covid. Florida is now estimating as high as 40% If they are both right, we are talking 180,000 deaths to 240,000 deaths. Still high by past flu pandemic past decade. 2018 flu based on similar infection and population, would be 160,000.
Biden Recession coming?
Will the Biden administration start off with a recession? The numbers are pointing in that direction and it won’t be Donald Trump’s fault but the fault of governors, mostly Democrats restricting and locking down their economy again.
Note that the 2018 flu season, the IFR was .17 slightly lower than what we are seeing now and the 1957/1968 pandemic lethality was similar. And the average age of death is 80 years old. So is that what we re crash an economy over? Maybe if we follow the science and data, we might come up with a better plan. Biden now has a decision. Encourage his large state Democrat governors open up the economy and schools, get the vaccines distributed and we can return to normal and 2021 will the Biden Boom.
Tweets on death
Considering that I have been 90 percent plus correct with many of my numbers in March and April on the Lockdown impact on the economy, IFR, the number of undiagnosed cases of Covid outnumbering diagnose case and the number of mild cases far higher than was being reported in April.
The one area I underestimated was the number of infections. Past flu season, we have seen seen 45 to 60 million infected, which means 20% or less of the population infected before the virus disappeared. According to CDC, we may have 100 to 110, 000 infected.
That is a third of the population. There are many reasons including novelty of the virus or the lockdown delaying the normal transmission or the virus but Covid has infected nearly double of the flu season normally does.
This could account for the half of the deaths we have seen. Thoughts? I underestimated how many people would get infected. So this is part of the 10% or less I got wrong. Still impressive track record and better than 80% of those commenting on this.
