Braves Astros

Normally I try to separate politics from sports since sports is my escape but this World Series is the exception. In the first four innings, no political references and Braves are winning 5-0.

It will be interesting to see what happens when the series shifts to Atlanta but the commissioner decided to move the All-Star game from Atlanta to Denver because he didn’t like the Georgia voting law. And moving from a heavily black city to a predominately white city in the name of social justice.

Now Commish may find himself back into Atlanta to award the trophy to the Braves. That will be Karma.

Recovery continues but for how long?

The recent unemployment tells two stories. The first is that unemployment went down to 4.8% and the second, actual job creation was less than 200,000 and below expectations.  The recovery that began in May of 2020 when Trump was President, continues but inflation is now turning into stagflation and the Biden’s economic plan is threatening the recovery.

This recovery and drop in unemployment is Republican driven as Republican states have 30% less unemployment than Democratic states as Democratic states average 17% over the national average and the bottom ten in unemployment are all run by Democratic governors.  Without Republican governors, our unemployment would be even higher since many of these governors open their economy sooner in the face of the pandemic. 

Regardless how you defined a Republican and Democratic States, Republican states out performed Democratic states when it comes to job creation.   

Since May 2020,  the economy has produced an average of 1,200,000 jobs per year with 1.5 million jobs created average from May 2020 to December 2020 as the economy saw unemployment dropped from 14.4 to 6.7, lower than originally predicted.  The economy now has dropped to 4.8 as we have seen an average of 500,000 jobs created. 

The one black cloud over the horizon is stagflation and the Biden economic plan concentrate more on dividing more evenly a stagnant pie as opposed to growing that pie to allow those at the bottom to move up the economic ladder. 

Biden inherited a growing economy and simply allowing the economy to heal while learning to live with the virus, Biden would be farther ahead but alas, he decided to allow the left to take over the agenda, putting the recovery at risk.

Dominic Pino writing in National Review observed, “The Fed’s dual mandate is to maintain low unemployment and low, stable inflation. In the long run, those are both good things for the country, and they are both possible to achieve. In the short run, however, there is a tradeoff between inflation and unemployment… The Fed’s dual mandate is to maintain low unemployment and low, stable inflation. In the long run, those are both good things for the country, and they are both possible to achieve. In the short run, however, there is a tradeoff between inflation and unemployment… But if inflation is not transitory, and unemployment keeps declining, the Fed may wind up in a really tricky situation: It may be forced to contract the money supply and reverse good unemployment numbers in the short run to get inflation back in line.”

The Feds may be facing that choice where inflation needs to be dealt with and this will bring a recession in an economy facing trillions of dollars of debt and deficit.  As it stands now, many families are losing income through inflation.  In a recent analysis, we found that families in Georgia, New Hampshire, and Nevada saw their income decline by 1100 to 1500 dollars due to the rise of inflation.

The recovery is still going on but the recovery is stagnating and stagflation is now in play. 

Lockdown and government restrictions in the area

The lockdowns should be seen as a failure and we have surrendered far too much of our freedom to stop this virus. We adopted measures not seen before in a Pandemic.

Government shut down businesses, schools, vaccine passports and mandates, a loss of freedom for a virus that killed 2 to 4 per 1000.

They failed for the following reasons:

  1. They failed to stop the virus spread and those state who had less restrictions did not see a significant death total per capita vs those states or countries that didn’t.
  2. States with less restrictions had less unemployment, better job creation.
  3. States more open had more children in classes.
  4. The number of screenings for chronic diseases, mental health issues increases shows other health issues were ignored.
  5. One study shows that as many as two people have died or will prematurely die as a result of these policies.

So if the economics falter, more people died from the other cases than the virus and children’s education interrupted. That is not a success but a failure. Those who are responsible for this needs to be defeated.

KC Season Over

Kevin of The Royal Reporter observed, “The Royals were projected by most experts to win anywhere from 70-72 games. They won 74, which was slightly above the pundits’ preseason predictions. Is it a monumental turnaround? Absolutely not. But remember: this Royals team lost 100-plus games in both 2018 and 2019, and finished with a winning percentage in 2020 that would pro-rate out to 70 wins.” He is right in that small improvements were made in the sense, we didn’t finish in last place or that we lost less than 90 games. More was expected.

We finished 38-35 after the All-Star break but still finished overall minus 14 games under .500. There were positive beginning with Nicky Lopez who hit .300 and played great defense. He played like the Lopez in the minor, get on base, steal an occasional base and played great defense. Merrifield hit only .277 but still managed 42 doubles which tied him for number one in the majors, number 4 in hits and number 2 in stolen bases at 40 plus played good defense at second.

Salvy had a great season 48 Hrs, tied for number one in Majors and lead majors in RBI. It may be too much to ask of him to have a similar year but he is still a major player. I have been impressed with Andrew Benintendi, who played good defense in left field and hit 16 homers. Michael Taylor will be back patrolling centerfield and can hit an occasional homer but is only a .240 hitter.

Isabel hit .280 in his brief time with Royals and will compete for an outfield position, and Hunter Dozier hit .277 over his last 30 games, but still wondering if in 2022, will we see the 2019 Dozier or the Dozier of 2020 and first half of the 2021 year?

Then there was the questionable, Ryan O’Hearn kept getting second and third chances but going in 2022, Royals need to say good bye. Here is a thought, McBroom had a nice season in Omaha but he spent only 7 games and 8 at bats. Why didn’t he get more of chance oppose to O’Hearn plus didn’t anyone notice that Frank “The Tank” Swindell had a nice year with Cubs who gave him a solid chance?

The real mystery was pitching where many of the leading minor league prospects came up. Lynch showed potential in the second half of the year but Kowar has yet to show if he is the real thing. Heasley and Zerpa showed potential in their brief stint in Kansas City but they will be in North West Arkansas and Omaha. Singer had some success but there were times that he regressed. He didn’t make the big jump I thought he would and Bubic had nice September. He showed me he is ready for the Majors but the question next year where to place him in the rotation? The best starter was Carlos Hernandez, who went 6-2 and was a pleasant surprise. The real disappointment was Brad Keller who regressed this season at 8-12.

The Royals have a ton of talent pitching in the minors and there was enough to say that we have potential starting rotation but the question is which pitcher survives the cut and which becomes trade bait for more talent?

Barlow, Staumont, Coleman, Bentz, and Tapia showed they could be a solid bull pen. (Bentz had a poor second half of the season so there is questions about him.) There are more talent in the minors to go with this.

Least I forget, Bobby Witt Jr. lead a group of sluggers coming up. He hit.290 in both double A and triple A with 33 homers and 29 stolen bases. He was joined by Pratto who hit 36 homers and a .265 average and M.J. Melendez who added 41 homers and a .288 average. Over the final playoff Triple A run, the Storm Chasers 7-2.

I had this feeling that this was going to be 2013 but alas, we had to satisfied with 74 wins and a fourth place finish.

As for the Central division rivals, Royals went 10-9 against White Sox, 11-8 against Tigers, 10-9 against Twins, and 5-14 against the Indians. They were 35-40 against their central division opponents. You can say that they won three out of four yearly series against Central division opponents but they were dominated by the Indians.

KC

As we end the season, I have to admit I have a little disappointment with the Royals. Maybe I was expecting too much but right now as we play our last game against the Indians,  I reviewed our record and find some interesting tidbits.

We were 10-9  the White Sox, 11-8 against the Tigers, 9-7 with three games left against the Twins but we did go 5-13 against the Indians. Overall we were minus 2 against the Central with winning records against three of the four teams including division leading White Sox. If nothing else, we nearly broke even with teams in our division and maybe it shows we are now competitive against team we need to beat next year.

As mention, we were 10-9 against the White Sox,  4-0 against Brewers, 4-3 against Astros plus a winning record against Seattle Mariners. With four games left, we are a plus 5 after the All Star break.    The reality is that overall we are 12 below .500 and that is also a fact.  The reason as I mention, inconsistent pitching in particular from the starting pitcher but we have a young staff that could develop.  The team is 12 games under .500.  That is a fact that can’t be denied since we play 162 games.

Iowa wins but it wasn’t Pretty

Iowa won and during the third quarter, look like the dominant defense and an offense that scored 17 points but the first half and even in fourth quarter, they didn’t look a 23 point favorite.

Iowa was down 14-7 to Colorado State at half time and as Iowa was driving near the end of the first half, a Petras interception, his first of the year, was nearly run back for a touchdown but the Rams manage to score to take the lead. In the first half, Colorado managed to make first down off third downs for nearly 67%, hardly Iowa defense like. Rams held Goodson to under 60 yards and one of those runs went for 27 yards. Goodson barely made 2 yards per run on the other carries.

But as they say, a win is a win. Iowa now begins the rest of the Big Ten schedule. They play undefeated Maryland at Maryland next weekend followed by Penn State, also undefeated. They have won their only road game at Ames against a good Iowa State and next week, they play a good Terrapin team.

The defense has not allowed 25 points in 26 straight game and in the second half, dominated like it should. The offense is serviceable but need to be more than that. Next week is another step toward a special year.

Royals more thoughts.

Royals where do we go for 2022?  With 9 games left, Royals are plus 4 since all star break but still 13 games under .500 so how close are the Royals?  My own view is that we are close to be a contender but a team with holes.

The failure of this year was young pitchers still learning how to pitch in the majors and the bottom half of the lineup often failed.  Carlos Santana is 35 who looked closer to 45 as he had a poor second half of the season. I have been critical of Hunter Dozier but he did play better in the second half and showed that maybe he can play a role next year, but Ryan O Hearn has not proven he belongs as a starter and time to say good bye.

Mike Minor was to be the veteran starter to stabilize the young pitching staff, but he finished over 5 ERA and only 8-12 record so do you bring him back?  Wade Davis and Greg Holland have been great in the past but not in 2020 and now it is time to say thank you for what you done for the past.  

Top four of the batting order is solid, Merrifield, Lopez, Perez and Benintendi and if Mondesi stays healthy, Royals have another offensive weapon.   The Royals have some young talent coming up led by Bobby Witt, jr who has hit nearly .300 and 33 homers, and you can add M.J. Melendez who has collabored 39 homers to go with his .281 average this minor league season.  In addition, Nick Pratto showed he is close, with 33 homers and .261 average and in Double AA, Vinnie Pasquantino has 24 homers and a .300 batting average.  Kyle Isabel is hitting .300 in his short stint with the Royals but he also had a good second half of the year at Omaha and Edward Olivares has potential with 5 homers in Kansas City but so far he is learning Major league pitching as his .224 batting average would show.

How aggressive will the Royals be?  I have stated before, if you are ready to contend then it is time to move aggressively.  From the Royals Review, “Sign free-agent Starling Marte as a free agent. Something like 2/$40M or 3/$45M should get it done. He probably won’t be entirely worth that deal, but I expect him to still be quite good in 2022. After that, hopefully, he declines gracefully, or the Royals have a breakout centerfield candidate and can relegate Marte to a vastly-overpaid fourth-outfielder…trade Scott Barlow, Jonathan Bowlan, and Edward Olivares to the Athletics for Chris Bassitt and some cash.The Royals’ young pitchers aren’t ready to go 200 IP and then pitch deep into the post-season. They’re going to need an experienced horse to lead the way. Bassitt fits this bill, and according to Baseball Trade Values, this is the kind of deal that could get it done. I know you don’t want to lose Barlow, but it’s sort of him or Jackson Kowar, and I think Kowar could be at least as good out of the bullpen if he can’t eventually figure out the whole starting thing.”  Granted these are aggressive moves but you have talent in the minors coming up and enough talent on the field now.

Royals are closer than their record shows for now and we will see what the off season brings.

Usyk Wins the Heavyweight Title

Boxing just saw a big shock in the heavyweight division as Oleksandr Usyk upset Anthony Joshua by out boxing him.   Usyk, in his third heavyweight fight since moving up from being a cruiserweight champion, fought a brilliant boxing match in out dueling Joshua. 

In the opening round, Usyk landed two left hands that rocked Joshua head back and came forward but staying mobile.  Joshua didn’t move as fluid and spent the first round being watchful.

During the second round and the third round, Usyk stayed out of Joshua reach and landed with his left. Joshua landed a couple of rights but got rocked by a big shot by Usyk, the smaller man.  Throughout the fourth round, Usyk appeared to dominate with his boxing skills but at the fifth round, Joshua nailed Usyk with a solid shot at the end of the round.

Through the first half, it was a technical fight which favored Uysk as he dictated the pace and both fighters keeping their distance.  During the sixth round, fans roared when Joshua landed hard shots and there even appear that maybe Usyk was moving backwards as Joshua moved forward.  One of Sky pundit had the fight four to two in favor of Usyk.

Joshua has a fighter who  had the confidence of a champion entering the seventh round.  Joshua snapped a body shot with his left but got countered with a shot that stunned Joshua but he recovered quickly.  Uysk looked back in charge the end of the seventh round.

The eighth and ninth round were more even rounds as far as scoring compared to the opening rounds where Usyk easily outboxed Joshua.  In the ninth round Joshua landed a couple of good shots but so did Usyk

A cut appeared on the Usyk’s right side of face as the tenth round began and both fighters showed the wear of the fight.  Joshua right eye was swelling up and Joshua appeared desperate while his corner tried to relax and ensure him the fight can be won.

Usyk came out flying at the beginning of the eleventh round and over the final six minutes of the fight, he looked the more mobile fighter.  While both fighters suffered from fatigue, Usyk movement indicated that he was the fresher the figher.  Usyk kept moving forward and throwing punches and while Joshua attempted one big right, it missed.  Usyk rocked Joshua as the round wound down.  The question was now would he win a decision fighting in Joshua’s backyard?

He won an unanimous decision, 117-111, 116-112, and 115-113. 

All reasonable scores and as one British sport writer observed, “It’s a shocking night for him and his fans but Joshua can have no complaints. He was outboxed and outclassed. He started slowly, and grew into the fight as it went on, but what a display by Usyk, who kept coming forward and mixing up his angles of attack. Joshua was slower – although clearly more powerful – and he did hurt Usyk at times. But the Ukrainian is now the new heavyweight champion. It’s the second defeat of Anthony Joshua’s career.”

Sky pundit Chris Eubank Jr: “I’m gobsmacked, flabbergasted … I didn’t see the fight going that way at all. It’s only his [Usyk’s] third heavyweight fight. It was a masterclass. One of the biggest statements in boxing for a very long time. Full credit to the guy.” 

Much of the boxing world  were stunned. No one thinks of Usyk as a official contender for the pound for pound champion as Alvarez or Crawford are often thought of the best pound for pound but now you have to put Usyk in the conversation.

And this put the entire heavyweight division on its ear as the anticipated Fury-Joshua fight has been put on hold and Usyk has most of the heavy weight belts.  Fury still has to fight Wilder and while I favor Fury in this fight due to his technical boxing skills, Wilder has a puncher chance with one blow.   Usyk was unknown before tonight but now he is king of the heavyweight.

When do you end a rebuild and go for it?

Going into the 2022, the Royals have to make a decision, when do you go for it and the rebuild?

Royals have both strengths and weakness. The top four in the batting order is a potent. Merrifield is hitting .279 with 171 hits and 40 stolen bases. While he is below his lifetime, still he is hitting close to .280 and playing solid defense at second. Nicky Lopez is hitting .300 and 20 steals along with solid defense at short. My own view is that Lopez .300 is for real and he has finally put it together. He knows his limitation and worked his strength. He was a .300 plus hitter in the minors and he is fulfilling his potential.

Perez is having a career year and showing why he is worth the long term contract given to him and Benintendi is hitting .280 with 15 homers. Here is the dilemma, both Merrifield is signed through 2023 and Benintendi through 2022. If they end their rebuild, both men are Royals next year. Benintendi has recovered much of his 2018 season and proved to be an excellent replacement defensively for Gordon. Do you take your chance that you won’t resign him but keep him for 2022. If you are not certain that you are close to contending, no but if you think the rebuild is not yet complete, then yes.

The bottom half of the batting order is problematic. Mondesi is potentially a star but he can’t stay on the field. Dozier got his contract but has hit poorly in 2020 and 2021. Ryan O’Hearn has yet to show he is a long term solution. Michael Taylor is a good defensive centerfield and has 12 homers. He is a .245 hitter and if you had other offensive players surrounding him, he is worth keeping but when you Dozier and O Hearn hitting .210 and .220, maybe he is a luxury you can’t afford.

The key is do you think Isabel and Olivares are ready to play, then you cut bait with O’Hearn. McBroom spent most of the year in Omaha and he has 30 homers so you have to wonder why wasn’t he on Royals as oppose to O’Hearn. As for Dozier, if he wasn’t signed to a long term contract, he would be gone. Next year you have Witt coming up to play infield, and he has shown that he has nothing to prove in the minors. Witt has the defensive skills, speed, and power to go with his hitting skills. Behind him is M.j. Melendez and Nick Pratto, both power hitters in their right. Those three hit nearly 100 homers this past year. Will they be ready for the show? If Witt shows his potential and Mondesi can stay healthy enough to play most games, then we are talking a potent offense.

Baseball is about pitching and the starting pitching is a mess. Daniel Lynch and Kris Bubic have had their moments but they also had those games that reminded us they are still young. Brad Singer has taken a step backward from 2020 and needs to develop a third pitch and Kowar shown that he is not ready for the show. Carlos Hernandez made the jump this year as he is the only Royal starting pitcher who will end up with a winning record. Brad Keller took step a back and is now shut down for the year. Mike Minor second tour as a Royal was hardly a success and he is now on the IR. Keller and Minor were both 8-12.

Bentz, Staumont, Barlow had a decent year as relief pitchers and Bolanos, Tapia may have the potential to add depth of the bullpen.

The Royals are deep in pitching talent in the minors and the question is whether they would be traded for starters. If they think they are close, then minor league prospects will be traded.

Royals are close to be contenders with strong nucleus at the top of the order but pitching is 90 percent of baseball and that is Royals major issue. Pitching.

Sports for the weekend

The weekend in sports for my teams. You can say the weekend began Thursday when Washington “formerly known as the Redskins” Football Team squeaked out a victory over the Giants who did everything they could to give Washington the game and succeeded.

Giants Daniel Jones had a great game, nearly 90 yards rushing and 300 passing but he had one pass dropped in the end zone, and another touchdown call back due to holding. Both cases, the drive ended in field goals, a eight point turnaround. Also, a offside on the the last play gave the Football team a second chance to steal victory from the jaws of defeat as Hopkins missed a 48 yard field goal but a second chance five yard closer gave the Football team their victory.

Taylor Heincke had 330 yards passing and found a way to win his first NFL victory as a starter. Now the Washington offense is in his hands but the defense has been shredded two games in a row.

Iowa is now 3-0 and their defense so far has been dominating as they have limited opponents to 10 points per game. They limited Indiana to 6 points, Iowa State to 17 and Kent State, a potent offense to 7 points. The offense scored 30 points against Kent State and Goodson ha 153 yard rushing and 3 TD but Iowa offense has yet to hit their stride as Petras has so far been more a manger of the offense as oppose to a playmaker.

Royals went 2-4 in their homestand against the A’s and Mariners. They did win the year series against the Mariners but they are now 15 games under .500 with 13 games left.

There are questions about the Royals going into 2022. I will detail them in a later blog.