A couple of stories caught my eyes dealing with Climate Science and energy production. The first story, the Artic Ocean was ice free 10,000 years ago during the summer as NoTrickZone observed, “Researchers from Aarhus University, in collaboration with Stockholm University and the United States Geological Survey, analyzed samples from the previously inaccessible region north of Greenland. The sediment samples were collected from the seabed in the Lincoln Sea. They showed that the sea ice in this region melted away during summer months around 10,000 years ago.” Nor is there any guarantee that Artic Ocean will be ice free in the future even though the authors view this as a possibility within this century. NoTrickZone quoted the authors, ““Climate models have suggested that summer sea ice in this region will melt in the coming decades, but it’s uncertain if it will happen in 20, 30, 40 years, or more. This project has demonstrated that we’re very close to this scenario, and that temperatures only have to increase a little before the ice will melt,” says Christof Pearce, Assistant Professor at the Department of Geoscience, Aarhus University.”
The researchers used data from the Early Holocene to predict future possible thawing of the Artic ocean, but they had to acknowledge that the summer temperature were higher than today, nor can you blame human intervention or higher CO2 since CO2 levels were actually lower. The authors cannot judge if this will be good or bad for the climate, but they take the negative perspective since that is how one gets published today. Even if the study puts in question the narrative that human activity is the main driving force behind present climate changes since it is obvious that past melting of the Artic was driven by natural variability.
NoTrickZone, P Gosselin noted, “Despite the undisputed powerful natural factors and cycles at play in the Arctic, some researchers take a more alarmist or even hysterical view of what the future holds. For example, warning that greenhouse gas emissions are heating up the planet, Christof Pearce said, citing dubious model results: “The study is a wake-up call, because we know that it will happen. This news is not making the situation more depressing, just more urgent. We have to act now so we can change it.” If this study shows that natural variability is responsible for this past change, what can humans truly do?
The second story makes the case the demise of fossil fuels in particular natural gas may be exaggerated. The author Terry Etam noted, “Here’s a 2023 headline from an anti-hydrocarbons website: “China, India lead US$534 billion global gas pipeline build out.” The article notes that globally, over 59,000 kilometres of transmission pipeline are under construction and an additional 151,000 kms are proposed (for reference, the earth’s circumference is 40,000 kms).”
Throughout the world, new natural gas pipelines are being developed, estimated to be five times the earth circumference. While many have predicted the end of fossil fuel, but the world is acting otherwise as natural pipeline are increasing and coal plants are being built in China and India.
Etam observed about Africa, “This is from the Gas Exporting Countries Forum, of which many members are African: “Unfortunately, the issue of African energy access has rarely been reported or prioritized, despite African energy consumption per capita being the lowest globally. In light of the need for a secure, affordable, and sustainable energy source to fuel economic growth and alleviate poverty in Africa, all the available energy options will continue to be relevant…the abundance of natural gas and the proven efficiency of combined cycle gas turbines (CCGTs) in power generation make it a suitable complement to renewables in Africa’s just transition plan.” Africa dependence on wind and solar will not work without fossil fuels. The era of fossil fuels are far from finished.