Red Driven economy part two

As I stated in the past, this is a red state driven job recovery as Red States unemployment are significantly lower than Blue states.

Biggest threat is the Biden economic plan with surging inflation that is wiping out the wage gain and spending plans that will slow the economy further than the recent 2% GDP recent data show.

The Biden plan is not about expanding the economic pie but dividing the pie as present. The result will be slow economic growth, stagflation or recession. The Feds are now tapering off and giving signals that it won’t print the money to cover the increase spending. With inflation going into 2022, high deficits, the economy will either slow down or simply slip into recession. Best thing for Biden and Democrats to do is nothing, No more spending, no tax increases, the economy will recover.

Luck and sports

The Phoenix Suns have been the luckiest team. In their opening round, Anthony Davis was injured during their playoff series and Lebron James was forced to carry the Lakers.

Nuggest were missing Jamal Murry, their top guard and the outside compliment to Most Valuable player Jokic and the Suns took advantage to sweep the Nuggets.

Clippers were missing Kawhli Leonard over the last three games of their series and while Paul George had a great series, but Suns played well and even won two games with Chris Paul out for Covid restrictions.

Now they play Milwaukee who managed to win their last two games against the Hawks without Giannis Antetokoumpo, but the Hawks were missing Trae Young with sore ankle for one game and Young was hampered by his ankle in the deciding game.

Will Antetokoumpo be available for the final series? While the Bucks have a good team even without Giannis but he is one of the two super stars in this series, with Chris Paul the other. Both teams have good players, Suns have a rising star in Devin Booker and Bucks have Kris Middleton. Brooks Lopez was a regular 20 point scorer with the Brooklyn Nets and while he has averaged 12 to 13 points a game since leaving the Nets but he was playing with Lebron James in LA and Giannis was the super star who along with Middleton, who are the two scorers. Lopez is support and Suns have the young Deandre Ayton who has a good playoffs. Both teams have talented support players.

This NBA playoff has been as much a survival match as key injuries have hurt teams during the playoffs. Celtics began the playoffs without Jaylen Brown, Nets played without Irving and Hardin much of their playoff run and in their last two games with Bucks, Irving was out and Hardin was playing with one leg.

Key players have been hurt at crucial times and the nearly year of straight year of playing with summer session followed by short off season. So the finals is upon of us and the survival of the fittest continues.

Tweet 9/7

Tonight I had a brilliant analysis on my recent research and easily swept my critics arguments. “Ignores so many factors, especially the big death tolls early on in the big blue cities. Gop states have so many advantages and yet death rate the same as blue states” My response: The Democrat bigger states had 57% whites, 31% Blacks and Hispanics and 8 % Asians vs GOP 56% Whites, 34% Black and Hispanics and 4% Asians. If there is any advantages, it belongs to Democratic states.

My response is simple. Professor Reilly research for our foundation noted in three studies, there was no significant difference in death per capita with non-lockdown studies and lockdown, Republican states vs Democratic states.

But saw significant difference in unemployment between Republican and Democratic States plus lockdown vs non lockdown states. My data collection mirrors his. He included variable just as Density population

But saw significant difference in unemployment between Republican and Democratic States plus lockdown vs non lockdown states. My data collection mirrors his. He included variable just as Density population.

“You’ve not taken into account that worst deaths in Democratic-run states was in the very early days of the pandemic when next-to-nothing was known about how to deal with the virus. GOP-run states COULD have learned from that to avoid deaths, but chose not to. ” Yes we did

Professor Reilly research for our foundation and my own research took this in account. Following bigger states, we found significant difference in unemployment with Democratic states with higher unemployment and higher death per capita.

The Democrat bigger states had 57% whites, 31% Blacks and Hispanics and 8 % Asians vs GOP 56% Whites, 34% Black and Hispanics and 4% Asians. If there is any advantages, it belongs to Democratic states.

GOP states and non lockdown states had 4-4.5% vs Democratic states 5.9-6.6%. What Lockdown supporters have failed to acknowledge the trade off in chronic diseases not being properly treated or not diagnosed early,

My research associates and I have produced four studies on the impact on the lockdown over the past years from April 2020 to May 2021 and another one will come sometimes this fall. We looked at racial demographics, density of population and other variables.

We looked at different definitions of what constitute a Republican states and Democratic states. Many researchers had their definition of constitute a GOP states and Democratic states. All of these research had similar results no matter how you define these states.

We looked GOP states in two ways, Republican governors and Democratic governors or if a state had a complete control of government by one party. The results were the same, no significant differences in deaths but big differences in unemployment.

As I will mention in a upcoming book, it is hard to tell where the pandemic impact hurt the economy and where bad government policies hurt the economy. We been in the midst of recovery since the end of May 2020 but Democratic governors and Biden economic policies is slowing down the recovery. We should have a stronger recovery, lower unemployment than present and less government debt and spending. Less inflation. I will repeat, the Lockdown and economic restrictions failed. My data and others proves it!!!

US Open continues

The youth brigade continues, as Carlos Alcaraz, Spain’s 18-year-old sensation, beat German qualifier Peter Gojowczyk to move into the quarterfinal, 5-7, 6-1, 5-7, 6-2, 6-0 for his first time.

Leylah Fernandez upset Angelique Kerber a former champion 4-6, 7-6, 6-2 to continue her run as she reaches the quarter final.

Jay Brooksby faces his toughest test as he faces Djokovic but it has been a good tournament for the youngster.

New Generation appearing

A friend asked me, with Nadal, Federer, and the Williams not appearing, what the fans would be. The first match I witnessed, the fans were quiet during the Keys-Stephens match but as the match moved forward, the fans got more into it and by the third set, the fans were roaring and continued to roar throughout the week.

Listening to the fans during the Alcaraz – Tsitsipas match and Osaka-Fernandez, the two 18 years had fans roaring for them. Many watching may have felt, they were watching the future of Tennis. This whole week, the fans were glad to be watching and many players loved the roar of the crowd, which was missing from 2020 Open, a tournament played in front of empty stands.

As for Osaka, she is now considering a break from Tennis, saying there is no joy in Tennis.

vaccines

I have been vaccinated so I am not anti vaxxer. My view on the vaccines are as following.

  1. Those who have underlying diseases or conditions, 50 years and over, taking immunosuppressive therapies should be vaccinated.
  2. I don’t believe in mandatory vaccines or vaccine passports.
  3. Women between age 30 and 50, have a one in million chance of blood clots so women talk to their doctors. I suspect most doctors will support women getting a vaccines.
  4. If you are under 30 and healthy, check with your doctors since you may get pericarditis or myocarditis maybe 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 100,000 based on CDC data. Talk to your doctor.
  5. Parents should talk with their children doctor and decide if the benefits outweigh the risks. Children are less likely to transmit and risk any serious impact from the virus unless they have underlying conditions. (Any Children with underlying conditions, refer to step one).

My own view is that government own PR relations has been a disaster, telling people you need to wear a mask after vaccination is not just bad PR but also bad science. The vaccine works and even in breakthrough virus, the virus appears less serious.

As for the Delta variant, the British data are encouraging. The Brits are seeing less deaths, less hospitalization and some of the data released is 1/5 to 1/10th of the original virus when it comes to death.

  1. The reason for these data begins with vaccinations and the fact that many have immunity due to having the virus.
  2. The virus may be mutating toward less virulent virus.

Kevin Roche of Healthy Skeptic noted on education, “We need, and I am doing everything I can to get this, clear information that shows 1) cases, hospitalizations and deaths by vaccination status, with fully vaccinated people defined in two ways, one is 14 days after second dose, and the other is a month after second dose; 2) the age structure of those cases in each group, vaxed and unvaxed; 3) the distribution of cycle numbers in at least a sample of recent cases in each group; and 4) for hospitalizations, how may of these are actually people who got hospitalized and tested positive versus those actually admitted for CV-19 disease.  If we could just get this information on a regular basis we would be able to dispel a lot of misinformation…The other thing we really need is for a big campaign to educate the public about what adaptive immunity is and that what we are seeing isn’t inconsistent with vaccines working.  People still haven’t been given a clear picture of how respiratory virus epidemics tend to work and what the effect of vaccines is.  They don’t and can’t stop exposure.  They can and do stop serious disease, with a lesser effectiveness among those with weakened immune systems.”

Our failure has been a failure of educating the public risk and the benefit. Roche added, “So governments have only themselves to blame for vaccine hesitancy.  If they had just been honest and completely forthcoming from the start, they would have some credibility left.  Instead they have people suspicious about side effects and now suspicious about whether the vaccines even work.  And now we are fighting this binge of completely misleading information about the vaccines and cases.”

Roche summarizes the future of this virus, ”  I don’t know how many times I can keep saying that this virus isn’t going away, it will be here, we will adapt to it and it will be similar to flu or even less dangerous.” We may be seeing the virus adopting and we are adopting to virus.

What we don’t need is restrict the economy and another mask mandates. We are past that. It is time to live with the virus.


NBA Playoffs

The Phoenix Suns have been the luckiest team. In their opening round, Anthony Davis was injured during their playoff series and Lebron James was forced to carry the Lakers.

Nuggest were missing Jamal Murry, their top guard and the outside compliment to Most Valuable player Jokic and the Suns took advantage to sweep the Nuggets.

Clippers were missing Kawhli Leonard over the last three games of their series and while Paul George had a great series, but Suns played well and even won two games with Chris Paul out for Covid restrictions.

Now they play Milwaukee who managed to win their last two games against the Hawks without Giannis Antetokoumpo, but the Hawks were missing Trae Young with sore ankle for one game and Young was hampered by his ankle in the deciding game.

Will Antetokoumpo be available for the final series? While the Bucks have a good team even without Giannis but he is one of the two super stars in this series, with Chris Paul the other. Both teams have good players, Suns have a rising star in Devin Booker and Bucks have Kris Middleton. Brooks Lopez was a regular 20 point scorer with the Brooklyn Nets and while he has averaged 12 to 13 points a game since leaving the Nets but he was playing with Lebron James in LA and Giannis was the super star who along with Middleton, who are the two scorers. Lopez is support and Suns have the young Deandre Ayton who has a good playoffs. Both teams have talented support players.

This NBA playoff has been as much a survival match as key injuries have hurt teams during the playoffs. Celtics began the playoffs without Jaylen Brown, Nets played without Irving and Hardin much of their playoff run and in their last two games with Bucks, Irving was out and Hardin was playing with one leg.

So the NBA playoffs is now headed into its final stage and the survival of the fitness.

Celtics Center

With Horford back, the center position is crowded. You have Williams, thought to be the future and a super athlete but often injured. Tristan Thompson, a tough rebounder but doesn’t have the ability to stretch the center. Tacko Fall, an interesting projects but how long do you wait to decide if there is a long term investment? Luke Kornet is the odd man out and Fall may be not be around next year as well if Celtics view Brown as a potential future center to compliment the rest of the team. Horford is a short term similar to Thompson. Look for more dealing.