Winston Churchill once said of Russia, “A riddle wrapped up in a mystery inside enigma” and the recent events in which Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin decided that he would retreat from his march on Moscow as part of a bargain brokered by Belarusian president Aleksandr Lukashenko to avert a potential bloodbath that for the past week, thrown Russian’s leadership class in turmoil. The previous twenty four hours looked like a coup against Putin and his military leaders but suddenly it ended just like that.
According to news report now, Prigozhin will leave for Belarus and criminal charges dropped but who knows what all this means and what political calculations are being considered. What will be the impact on the war on Ukraine? Will Wagner group be involved in further combat or retired from the front line? It was reported that Putin had to flee Moscow and does this hurt his own image internally? Will Moscow be willing to take a deal on Ukraine to get out of this morass? Or Putin feels pressured to push the envelope to win the war? What don’t we know is the impact and what deal between Prigozhin and Putin produced?
As of this moment, I couldn’t tell you if this was a victory for Putin or not, but in the long run, I can’t believe it is. The Wagner group began a mutiny and was marching to Moscow, before a deal stopped the march. What is intriguing is how many of the oligarchies or military leaders did not openly support Putin during the entire crisis or that Putin was forced to leave Moscow.
The recent turn of events saw Prigozhin leave Russia for Belarus and those who participated in the coup were given amnesty but doesn’t sound like they will be in the Russian army or fighting in Ukraine. The Wagner group bore the brunt of the battle for Bakhmut and lost heavily there. During the crisis, they had control of the City of Rostov-on-Don and even occupied the headquarters of the Southern Military District. As one observer noted, Prigozhin and Wagner must have gotten something in return and what is happening behind the scenes? How secure is Putin’s position? If Wagner is no longer involved in Ukraine, how does that impact Russian war there?
The events have shaken up world political calculations as Putin is in a weaker position today than he was a week ago. Part of Putin’s army essentially sided with the rebels and now the question remains, who can Putin’s trust now?
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The Donelson Files 