Newt Gingerich recently noted the Biden campaign is competent and capable of taking Biden over the line to presidency one more time as they did in 2020. Gingerich observed, ““The more I watch the polls and follow the methodical steps of the Biden team, the more I am convinced that we are underestimating Biden’s strength. A great deal of our underestimation comes from a deep misunderstanding of the nature of the modern Democrat Party.” Gingerich added, “Everyday Republicans tend to be the party of free enterprise, small business, and people who just want to be left alone. They don’t tend to have a real appreciation of the power of trillions of dollars in spending which holds together a coalition unbound by principle other than greed for tax dollars. So, seen from the values and interests of the left, Biden has been an outstanding president. He is not inept or incompetent. He’s faithfully exercising the liberal agenda. He is spending far more on the environment than any previous president. He is shoveling money to union contracts and changing regulators and government agencies to favor unions and undermine management.”
For the Democrats, government is their business, and they are willing to do what it takes to win to keep power. Each group that is part of the coalition, work together as long they all get their cut of money and power. The polls in many ways reflect this.
First the most recent polls from Real Clear Politics have seen Trump averaging 43.8 percent vs Biden 43.6 percent since June 6th and Biden won 4 of the polls compared to 3 for Trump with one tie. So, they are tied essentially. DeSantis runs behind Biden 42.6 percent to 43.6 percent for Biden. Biden won 2 of the polls, DeSantis leads in two and they are tied in three polls. So, like with Trump, DeSantis is essentially tied with Biden, only one point separate the two but they each lead in equal number of polls and nearly half of the recent polls are tied.
These recent polls are reflective of polls taken since the midterm elections. Trump has 44 percent to Biden 44.2 percent, not much different that recent polls in the month of June. DeSantis is 44.2 percent to Biden 44.6 percent, again not much different than data from the last month. So the question remains with Biden agenda unpopular with much of America is still tied with both Trump and DeSantis. I doubt the other GOP candidates would fare any better.
In a Democratic poll done in May, Trump ran behind Biden 50 percent to 48 percent, and they were tied in battleground state whereas DeSantis is up by only one point 49 percent to 48 percent but in battleground state, those numbers saw DeSantis was ahead 53 percent to 42 percent. If this accurate, it means DeSantis has a better chance of winning than Trump the general election.
The bottom line, it doesn’t matter who the Republican candidate is, it will be a tough race and while some may make a case for DeSantis better able to win in 2024, he is not guaranteed to win and the Democrats and their co-political operative with bylines will make DeSantis the next Hitler.
The question that Republican primary voters and caucus goers need to ask themselves, who provides the best chance of winning and when they win, who can govern effectively. While you may view the prosecution of Trump a political persecution, the impact on many independent voters, suburban voters and even a few Republicans need to be consider. Will they tire of the drama a second Trump administration and simply either stay home, sinking those down tickets or vote for someone else? And Republicans need to prepare for the possibility that Biden doesn’t run or maybe RFK or another candidate wounds Biden in early primary votes. In 1968, LBJ won New Hampshire but McCarthy came within 5 points, and this caused a wave within the Democratic party. LBJ quit the race after that, and his Vice President Hubert Humphrey won the nomination. Unlike LBJ, Biden has shown serious age issues and maybe signs of dementia as his obvious decline can no longer be hidden. Many Democrats may view him as handicap and possibly a loser so what happens when Democrats go with Galvin Newsome or another candidate much younger? That changes the dynamic of the race and may make it even tougher for Republicans to win. Even Harris may prove tougher even though she is running behind both Trump and DeSantis, but she is still close despite that she is even more unpopular than Biden. Biden could easily do a 1968 LBJ and say he is not running after all.
In 2022, GOP had many advantages in key battleground states with inflation and the unpopularity of Biden but while they got the House back, they lost the Senate and lost key races in those battleground states. It could happen again in 2024.
The Donelson Files 