Why do many Americans ready to support Trump/Vance ticket? For many in the middle class, they view the system is rigged and inflation has hurt their overall income as any rise in salary has been neutralized by rising inflation.
In a report conducted through the Americas Majority Foundation, “The U.S. is still a country where wealth and income earned through hard work and personal risk taking is respected. Our national survey found interesting dynamics. 71% of Blacks, 79% of Whites and 66% of Hispanics believe that hard work is still rewarded but when asked if the economic system rigged against the Middle Class, we see the results reverse. 71% of Blacks, 65% of Whites and 61% of Hispanics believe the economic system is rigged. In a survey among Michigan voters in August of 2016, two of every three voters viewed the system rigged against the Middle Class with two/thirds of White and Black voters along with 55% of Hispanic voters viewing the system as being rigged against Middle Class. Even with that cynicism, four out of five Michigan voters believe that to increase economic opportunity and a fair opportunity to succeed, you must grow the private sector, which is the position taken by Republican candidate Donald Trump, the first Republican who won Michigan since 1988.”
We found that many Americans are of two minds. They think that hard work is still rewarded and support the proven principles of productive work, delayed gratification and personal responsibility and they also fear a trend toward the system being rigged against them. A system where the proven principles are not enough. While they respect the entrepreneurs who start up their companies, they have less respect for executives who manage long-established companies. The heart of the complaint is executives who are paid millions while seemingly running former power-house companies into the ground. This entrepreneur/manager divide is part of the explanation on whether a person sees it as a system that allows people to pursue their passions or a system where only the top benefit. If they see a manager-stock-trader economy, they will likely think of it as a rigged system where only the top benefit. If they see an entrepreneur economy, they are more likely to think in terms of pursuing passions. Many Trump Republicans like other Americans view the system rigged against them.
President Trump showed a commitment to the concerns of “Populists Capitalists” who did not fare well under many trade agreements and past economic policies. Which is what underlining the tension within the GOP from speaker race to the presidential campaign, as the populist wing of the party feels unwanted and outside as many within the GOP just as soon be rid of Trump supporters. The GOP is going through the process of defining what kind of Party it will be in the future. Will it be a populist party or a conservative party? Or a third way, a constructive collaboration of the populist and Conservative party? Trump own administration did combine both with his tax and regulations reduction plus his only trade deal was NAFTA Two, adjusting work rules to benefit blue collar while keeping trade flowing. Trump foreign policy was a more modest approach, concentrating on China and not adding any new involvements. His trade policy more protectionist than previous Republican administrations but there was enough that united the Party and even today, there is more that unites the MAGA and more traditional Republicans than divide. Republicans can’t win without the populist wing and the populist wing must understand that it is part of a conservative/populist coalition.
The one issue down the road is Entitlement reform, as it is agreed that we need to tackle Medicare and Social Security but as noted, many of the Trump coalition are among those who are not prepared for retirement and since 2007, the investor class declined, in particular among the Middle Class. The Middle Class and upper Middle Class saw significant drops in participation in the investor class since the Great Recession. Two thirds of those with incomes between $30,000 to $74,999 were members of the investor class but this was reduced to 54% by 2017 for a drop of 13% and those earning between $75,000 to $99,999 declined from 85% to 75%. The Stock market lost half of its value during the Great recession and many investors removed their money from the market or they took money out to survive periods of economic difficulty. The rise in the stock market has made up the difference in what was lost, many of the Middle class did not reinvest and did not participate in the market’s rise. This has helped in the decline in income and wealth of many within the Middle-Class during Obama’s recovery. Both College graduates and those without college degrees saw reduction in investor class participation but those without a college degree saw bigger drop in participation as members of the Middle Class and many blue-collar workers not only saw themselves without jobs but they also saw their nest egg disappear. Eighty-three percent of College graduates were members of the investor class before the Great Recession but after only 78% of College graduates were members of the investor class. Those without college degree went from 53% to 43%. Many of these workers became Trump Republicans during as Trump made significant inroads among blue collar and no college graduates voters.
While 2024 Republican convention moved toward the populist wing, the synergy of conservatism and populism continues and the definition of who the Republicans are continues. Many Republican governors have shown that their free-market approach worked better than their Democratic counterparts. Texas and Florida have been the beneficiary of the exodus from the major Democratic states just as California, New York and Illinois.
The Donelson Files 