Virginia lesson one

This was a great effort on all of the GOP to win Virginia and shows the importance of keeping a watchful eye on cheating.  In reviewing Voter Reference data, we still have issues and have to expand our efforts to multiple states in 2022.  If I understand the data, there are 63,000 plus more votes than voters in Virginia but in 2020, these numbers were small percentage of the margin that Trump lost or below MOF (margin of Fraud) for 2020 but these numbers represent a significant portion of the margin that Youngkin and Sears won plus within the MOF of Mijares margin.   You can add in the possibility of illegal voters voting.  A few years ago, Public Legal Foundation found a number of illegal voters who had voted before being removed off the public voting role and data provided by research of Old Dominion University along with my own research foundation demonstrated that numbers of illegal citizens voting were significant.  We showed we can win by the other guy rules but it doesn’t mean we don’t have issues.  I will be curious what we find out about  New Jersey since much of our efforts were concentrated in Virginia and how that turns out.

Many of the states we compete in, including Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania will be conducted by the Democrats rules so obviously this coordination needs to continue as well as passing and enforcing election security rules.  The good news is that we showed that we can win under the worse of conditions and that our vote will count.    Plus it helps that most of the issues are running in our direction.  

Recovery continues but for how long?

The recent unemployment tells two stories. The first is that unemployment went down to 4.8% and the second, actual job creation was less than 200,000 and below expectations.  The recovery that began in May of 2020 when Trump was President, continues but inflation is now turning into stagflation and the Biden’s economic plan is threatening the recovery.

This recovery and drop in unemployment is Republican driven as Republican states have 30% less unemployment than Democratic states as Democratic states average 17% over the national average and the bottom ten in unemployment are all run by Democratic governors.  Without Republican governors, our unemployment would be even higher since many of these governors open their economy sooner in the face of the pandemic. 

Regardless how you defined a Republican and Democratic States, Republican states out performed Democratic states when it comes to job creation.   

Since May 2020,  the economy has produced an average of 1,200,000 jobs per year with 1.5 million jobs created average from May 2020 to December 2020 as the economy saw unemployment dropped from 14.4 to 6.7, lower than originally predicted.  The economy now has dropped to 4.8 as we have seen an average of 500,000 jobs created. 

The one black cloud over the horizon is stagflation and the Biden economic plan concentrate more on dividing more evenly a stagnant pie as opposed to growing that pie to allow those at the bottom to move up the economic ladder. 

Biden inherited a growing economy and simply allowing the economy to heal while learning to live with the virus, Biden would be farther ahead but alas, he decided to allow the left to take over the agenda, putting the recovery at risk.

Dominic Pino writing in National Review observed, “The Fed’s dual mandate is to maintain low unemployment and low, stable inflation. In the long run, those are both good things for the country, and they are both possible to achieve. In the short run, however, there is a tradeoff between inflation and unemployment… The Fed’s dual mandate is to maintain low unemployment and low, stable inflation. In the long run, those are both good things for the country, and they are both possible to achieve. In the short run, however, there is a tradeoff between inflation and unemployment… But if inflation is not transitory, and unemployment keeps declining, the Fed may wind up in a really tricky situation: It may be forced to contract the money supply and reverse good unemployment numbers in the short run to get inflation back in line.”

The Feds may be facing that choice where inflation needs to be dealt with and this will bring a recession in an economy facing trillions of dollars of debt and deficit.  As it stands now, many families are losing income through inflation.  In a recent analysis, we found that families in Georgia, New Hampshire, and Nevada saw their income decline by 1100 to 1500 dollars due to the rise of inflation.

The recovery is still going on but the recovery is stagnating and stagflation is now in play. 

Lockdown and government restrictions in the area

The lockdowns should be seen as a failure and we have surrendered far too much of our freedom to stop this virus. We adopted measures not seen before in a Pandemic.

Government shut down businesses, schools, vaccine passports and mandates, a loss of freedom for a virus that killed 2 to 4 per 1000.

They failed for the following reasons:

  1. They failed to stop the virus spread and those state who had less restrictions did not see a significant death total per capita vs those states or countries that didn’t.
  2. States with less restrictions had less unemployment, better job creation.
  3. States more open had more children in classes.
  4. The number of screenings for chronic diseases, mental health issues increases shows other health issues were ignored.
  5. One study shows that as many as two people have died or will prematurely die as a result of these policies.

So if the economics falter, more people died from the other cases than the virus and children’s education interrupted. That is not a success but a failure. Those who are responsible for this needs to be defeated.

Update on Covid

A couple of weeks ago, I reviewed data on Covid and most folks totally missed what I was saying. I am going to start with unemployment to show my point that the economic restrictions and lockdown did more damage than the virus itself.

Of top ten states, 100% GOP governors, 72% of the top 25, 65% of states at national average or lower. Democrats had 65% of states in bottom half of LOWER half and 91% of the bottom 11.

The result GOP states unemployment were significantly lower!!!!!! Overall 4.4 for GOP states and 6.4 Democratic states!!!! We viewed GOP and Democratic in two ways plus we compared bigger GOP and Democratic states.

Now there is very little difference in death per capital when all studies looked at. We are talking 6 per 100,000.

Bottom line, GOP states had a SIGNIFICANTLY LESS UNEMPLOYMENT BUT THERE WAS VERY LITTLE DIFFERENCE DIFFERENT IN DEATH PER CAPITA!!! END OF PART ONE

Wilfred Reiley has done three studies on lockdowns and found the following:

1. Unemployment in both non lockdown and Republican states lower than lockdown and Democratic states.

2. Lower bankruptcy in non-lockdown states per capita More below

3. Lower death per capita for GOP and non-lockdown states but no significant difference.

4. Blacks were more likely to die in Democratic states and lockdown states. Reilly looked at different variables including density which he rated a significant variable.

Texas is higher when adjusted. Average age of major states

Red states have slightly older population.

When comparing major states, these states were similar in demographics but Republican states had slightly more blacks and Hispanics.

Lockdown failures and economic restrictions failed to stem the infections and there was very little difference in death per capita regardless of variables used. Unemployment were significantly lower in Republican states so showing the failure of the lockdown

Republican states had significantly lower unemployment. This should show policy makers that our economic shortcomings are not due to the virus but to economic plans and plan to combat the virus.

School children are seeing setback in their education and many younger people are being killed by drug overdose and suicide, and many are not getting treated for chronic diseases or screened. There are studies showing that many have died or will died prematurely.

These deaths totals exceeds death by Corona virus. Our policies have been a disaster and have not stem infection but added significant damage to society.

Lockdown failures and economic restrictions failed to stem the infections and there was very little difference in death per capita regardless of variables used. Unemployment were significantly lower in Republican states so showing the failure of the lockdown.

Issues with Pandemic defense.

Here is the problem with the Lockdown and economic restrictions argument. First my opponents have yet to come to grips of the damage our response to overall society.

I haven’t even touched on other impact including additional suicides, drug overdose increases, chronic diseases not being treated, delayed in screenings for cancer and other diseases. There are more than enough data to show more people have died or will PREMATURELY DIE.

One critic wants us to take New York out as outlier, now that is cherry picking. When reviewing bigger states run by GOP and Democrat governors, we found Demographics, density and age were similar. Not only that the Democratic states may have had slight advantages.

States like Illinois and Pennsylvania have similar per capita death data to similar Republican states like Florida, Georgia, Texas and Ohio. And they have higher unemployment due to their policies.

So unless you can defend the higher unemployment by Democrat states (we are talking 30% higher on the average, look at the data ) was worth the sacrifice or the delay in opening the schools, the increase suicide and drug overdoses, then you have no legitimate argument.

Lockdown and economic restrictions in the loss of freedom, loss jobs and businesses failed in stemming the virus. That is not even no longer debatable.

What a good exchange look likes

Had a great exchange with Jason twitter and here is the exchange.

Jason: You’re definitely in the league of cherry-picking and manipulating data to support your cognitive bias, and no I am not in that league with you…agreed. Yet, your rebuttal doesn’t actual address my point. Redirecting the argument is not a “rebuttal”. Try again

Tom: I did rebut your arguments and that others. You have failed to respond to my arguments that the cost of lockdowns have been worse that dealing with the virus. Thanks for the response and will use your shallow thinking on my timeline on the failure of your thought process.

From here the tone changes

Jason: That is a different argument, and one I actually agree with you on. My point was in your depiction of infection and death rates. You disingenuously discount the fact that comparing Dem states (that have the most densely populated cities) is a false equivalence to Rep states.

Tom: I referred to studies that dealt with density of population, noted that many GOP bigger states have density and demographics to bigger blue states. Illinois and Pennsylvania are similar to Florida and other red states in per capita death.

Jason: When you use misleading data to build toward your ultimate point, your intended argument loses it’s validity and credibility. It’s unfortunate because you make some valid points…but it seems you need to take classes in argument structure.

Tom: You have missed my entire argument namely lockdowns failed to stem the infection and had higher cost to society. That was my argument and your friends failed to see that. Since you agree with them on this We may not be far apart

Jason: I’m not sure who my friends are that you are referring to. I agree with you that draconian restrictions did more harm than good in the grand scheme of things, but I think it’s a more nuance argument than what you are presenting.

Jason: I hear you. Twitter wars are futile, but I think we all need to be careful when making “seemingly” ideologic points

Tom: I was referring to Sean and Dennis who fail to see my larger point or respond to it like you are now doing. Normally I avoid twitter wars but since you are willing to look at overall data, this was worth while exchange. But I will add there are individuals like Andy Slavett who have refuses to see the damage of the lockdown.

Tom: My data is not misleading, and my argument is sound. Trust me, I had others validate my overall data. How would you make the argument?

Jason My argument, specific to population density, is that you cannot aptly compare a city like New York or Chicago to even the largest cities in red states. And even if you could, then your data should compare those cities as opposed to the states, otherwise the data is diluted

Tom: Good point but I chose states and we compared them in different ways as to ensure the best numbers possible

Tom: I am going to apologize to you since you understood my arguments but had serious question about methodology and allowed me to flush it out. Have a good day.

Jason: I appreciate that and thank you as well.

Jason had serious question about the data and we discussed my methodology. Unfortunately, these discussion end up in name calling. Certainly when some of tweeters question your intellect, do you get into a pissing contest? Jason challenge me and decided to go for it. Interesting conversation went from insults to serious discussion on methodology. I defended my methodology and he understood what I was doing. He made reasonable recommendations but I stand by our methodology and the general point. For me, it is not about just death per capita but the overall impact of the lockdown and economic restrictions.

Tweet September 5th


R
eceived interesting comments from all sides but no one has bothered to discuss the wide difference in unemployment and ask or answer the question, was the trade off of the lockdowns and economic restrictions worth the higher unemployment?

Updated data on states: among GOP governors, the average death per capita was 184 to 180 for Democratic states. That represent 2% difference. Top 8 populous states, There is 221 deaths per 100,000 in Democratic states vs 204 in GOP states. This represent a 8% difference-GOP.S

No real statistic difference in deaths but major differences in unemployment. Proof the Lockdowns failed in saving lives but economic damage was far worse.

Democrat run states had 20 per 100,000 less death but 2300 per 100,000 more unemployed. Overall 2 per 100,000 more people died from Covid in GOP states but Democrats had 2000 per 100,000 unemployed. That is the trade off.212S

Updated data on states: among GOP governors, the average death per capita was 184 to 180 for Democratic states. That represent 2% difference. Top 8 populous states, There is 221 deaths per 100,000 in Democratic states vs 204 in GOP states. This represent a 8% difference-GOP.

Put it this way. Among 50 states, there was 1600 per 100,000 more people unemployed under Democrat governors, 2100 per 100,000 in most populous states, and among Democratic control states, 2300 per 100,000 more unemployed for an average of 2000 per 100,000 per unemployed.

In the first study, 4 per 100,000 died from Covid in GOP states but they had stronger economy with 1600 more per 100,000 employed. Among bigger states, the GOP governors have lower death and lower unemployment.

Censorship

Alex Berenson is no longer on twitter because he dares to offer alternatives to the groupthink about Covid. While I didn’t always agree with Alex, I did find what he tweeted worth reading simply because he reviewed data and found many flaws in those data.

Like many of us, Berenson question the science behind the lockdowns and the economic restrictions that accompany the lockdowns. Berenson was part of a movement, proving the futility of the lockdown.

In May of 2020, I came out in favor of the living with the virus since I viewed the damage the lockdown would prove worse than the damage from the virus. Here we are year and half later, and we lockdown skeptics have been proven right.

More young people have died from suicide and drug overdoses than the virus. Studies have shown how many are not seeking treatment for diseases, thus adding to death totals. In a recent study, 17% indicated they would avoid to seek treatment because of the fear of Covid. This is one of many studies showing the impact of the lockdown and fear of Covid

Reality one: We are looking at a virus that kills over all 2 to 4 per 1000. Contrast this to average flu season which the IFR was 1 per 1000 and we have had pandemics like in 1957 which killed 2 to 3 per 1000, similar to what we are seeing now. Below survival rate by age

This is a virus that hits the oldest and most vulnerable with underlying condition.

As this chart shows, younger patients are more likely to die from the flu than Corona virus.

The economic damage has been immense. Those states who lockdown or had economic restrictions, ended up with higher unemployment.

As you can see, GOP states and non-lockdown states had lower unemployment overall. This has been consistent from the beginning of the the pandemic. We have failed to see the cost of the lockdowns and unemployment.

There are studies that question the efficacy of the masks and the society cost of the vaccine passport. Europe is reducing or eliminating masks mandates for students whereas we still debating on mask mandates despite the science. Skeptics are right and censoring those who are right is hardly beneficial but feeds in the distrust that is accompanying the present debate.

Working toward the future

A few thoughts about the Democratic and Republican Party. For Republicans, it is a question in the foreseeable is whether Trump will run in 2024 or a new generation of Republicans take hold.

The problem with Trump is that while he garner the base, he brings out the opponents as well. Are we ready for yet another 78 year old candidate after the Biden years? And can Trump take the Party forward, learn from his mistakes, or will he be unable to control his worse instincts and unable to broaden the coalition? While we made progress within the minority communities, Cygnal pollster Brent Buchanan noted, “This trendline is much clearer than the previous graph, showing where Democrats are gaining in areas that are growing and where Republicans are picking up support in stagnating or declining counties.” We lost a good portion of suburban voters in 2020 and can GOP recapture many of the suburban voters, the GOP is will have difficulty finding a permanent majority.

Democrats have their own problems since they are the Socialist Party of America and in the first six months, their proposals is failing and could lead to a complete collapse of the economy. While most Democrats would deny they are socialist, their proposals are definitely the most radical.

Among those things include:

  1. Elimination of industries, like the fossil fuels and force industries to manufacture what the government wants like electric cars.
  2. Open Border, allowing illegal immigration and weakening country identity.
  3. Theories like Critical race theories will undermine what America should be and teach a future generation that America is a racist society but yet, force America to live in a separated society by class and race.
  4. Taxing the productive part of society, expanding the welfare state and spending trillion of dollars while seeing inflation increasing.
  5. Biden is begging OPEC to increase production while he shuts our own energy production.
  6. Afghanistan proving to be a big disaster and that has strengthen our enemies while upsetting our allies.

Democrats have shown that their philosophy has been a complete failure, but GOP has to convince America they have a plan to change America for the best.

As I mention before, what we have seen with Biden would have been seen with any other Democrats.

Biden blows it

From Nigel Farage,

“But if [terror attacks] start to happen again and we start to think, well, how do we go out again and try and stop these cells that are spreading international terror? How can we do it with the Americans? How can we do it with an ally that is treating us with contempt and betrayed us and into the bargain, many of our own citizens…Certainly, if it’s a Biden or Harris administration, honestly, there is no way, there is no way a British parliament right now would vote for military cooperation with America led by this administration. And that’s a very sad thing to say, because since 1917, the UK and America have been side by side in virtually every major conflict. We’ve been the closest allies in terms of military action, in terms of intelligence sharing, in terms of culture, in terms of business…“You couldn’t have a better ally in the world. Right at the moment, I’m sorry, but there’s no way we could enter into another operation with you.”

Biden has now managed to screw up our closet ally. Good job Joe.