More on Data

The headline Fauci states 100,000 to 200,000 is design to scare Americans and of course, made Donald Trump look bad. Equally accurate headline, Fauci states death rates headed toward a bad flu season.  Note the difference here and of course models they are based on available data or guess work on how Americans will react to dealing with the virus. 

As I have mention, there is many aspects to how guess the final numbers.  One is the infection rate and based on those tested vs those infected. On the cruise liner Diamond Princess, between 17 to 20% became infected and reviewing about 1,000,000 tested, 10 percent were found infected.  A little over 1% of those infected died and overall, only .2 percent died among the 3700 plus of those crew and passengers.   Since not everyone will be tested and much of the data, we are seeing on mortality rate is based on those confirmed and do not count many mild cases are not being tested so the overall mortality rates will be overestimated.  At 20 percent infected, we will see a little over 60 million infected and up to 600,000 dead based on 1% mortality.  At .1 percent, that number would be 60 thousand.

As mention, we may see a less infected rate and the numbers could be half of the 60 million and the death total would be between 30,000 to 300,000.  Fauci numbers are in line with many of experts and 100,000 is equal to a bad flu season and 200,000 is one tenth of the Spanish Flu a century ago on a per capita basis.  Those numbers would represent a victory for the Trump administration since they would be able to say lives were saved.  The media won’t report as such but then truth and much of the modern-day media, truth is only optional. 

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