Considering that I have been 90 percent plus correct with many of my numbers in March and April on the Lockdown impact on the economy, IFR, the number of undiagnosed cases of Covid outnumbering diagnose case and the number of mild cases far higher than was being reported in April.
The one area I underestimated was the number of infections. Past flu season, we have seen seen 45 to 60 million infected, which means 20% or less of the population infected before the virus disappeared. According to CDC, we may have 100 to 110, 000 infected.
That is a third of the population. There are many reasons including novelty of the virus or the lockdown delaying the normal transmission or the virus but Covid has infected nearly double of the flu season normally does.
This could account for the half of the deaths we have seen. Thoughts? I underestimated how many people would get infected. So this is part of the 10% or less I got wrong. Still impressive track record and better than 80% of those commenting on this.