Update on Covid

A couple of weeks ago, I reviewed data on Covid and most folks totally missed what I was saying. I am going to start with unemployment to show my point that the economic restrictions and lockdown did more damage than the virus itself.

Of top ten states, 100% GOP governors, 72% of the top 25, 65% of states at national average or lower. Democrats had 65% of states in bottom half of LOWER half and 91% of the bottom 11.

The result GOP states unemployment were significantly lower!!!!!! Overall 4.4 for GOP states and 6.4 Democratic states!!!! We viewed GOP and Democratic in two ways plus we compared bigger GOP and Democratic states.

Now there is very little difference in death per capital when all studies looked at. We are talking 6 per 100,000.


Wilfred Reiley has done three studies on lockdowns and found the following:

1. Unemployment in both non lockdown and Republican states lower than lockdown and Democratic states.

2. Lower bankruptcy in non-lockdown states per capita More below

3. Lower death per capita for GOP and non-lockdown states but no significant difference.

4. Blacks were more likely to die in Democratic states and lockdown states. Reilly looked at different variables including density which he rated a significant variable.

Texas is higher when adjusted. Average age of major states

Red states have slightly older population.

When comparing major states, these states were similar in demographics but Republican states had slightly more blacks and Hispanics.

Lockdown failures and economic restrictions failed to stem the infections and there was very little difference in death per capita regardless of variables used. Unemployment were significantly lower in Republican states so showing the failure of the lockdown

Republican states had significantly lower unemployment. This should show policy makers that our economic shortcomings are not due to the virus but to economic plans and plan to combat the virus.

School children are seeing setback in their education and many younger people are being killed by drug overdose and suicide, and many are not getting treated for chronic diseases or screened. There are studies showing that many have died or will died prematurely.

These deaths totals exceeds death by Corona virus. Our policies have been a disaster and have not stem infection but added significant damage to society.

Lockdown failures and economic restrictions failed to stem the infections and there was very little difference in death per capita regardless of variables used. Unemployment were significantly lower in Republican states so showing the failure of the lockdown.

Royals frustration and potential for 2022

At the beginning of the season, I had high hopes for a potential .500 record and maybe if all worked out perfectly, a possible play contender. They have disappointed as they are minus 13 under .500 with 21 games left. Unless they go on a big winning streak, they will be under .500 again. (They are plus 4 since the All-Star break.)

Problems begin with pitching as young pitchers have exhibited growing pains but progress have been shown. There are times that Brad Singer have shown growth from last year and times that he has taken steps backwards as he struggles to develop a third pitch but his last game, he has pitched well over the last three games with a victory over White Sox. Daniel Lynch has pitched well since coming back from Omaha and a rough start early this year as he is 3-1. Kowar is still showing growing pain but getting better with each game but the gem of this young staff is Carlos Hernandez who is 6-1 this year but over his last seven games 4-0 and a ERA under 2. Kris Bubic has been inconsistent and may be a fifth starter in the future. Brad Keller was due to have a break through year but 8-12 this year. The good news is that he is under 4 ERA in his last seven games but still I expected more.

As one writer for Royals Review noted, “And the Royals still have some very interesting pitchers in the minors in Asa Lacy, Alec Marsh, Jonathan Bowlan, and Austin Cox to name a few. The fact that it is impossible to make a reasonably sized list of potential pitchers without leaving off several is a testament to the true depth the Royals currently have in their minor league pitching.” The bullpen is developing but again, this year a lot of potential but not yet developed and this point was reinforced by Royal Review writer, “In the bullpen the Royals have Scott Barlow, Josh Staumont, Joel Payamps, Jake Brentz, Domingo Tapia, Richard Lovelady, and Tyler Zuber currently experiencing mixed levels of success at the big leagues. Of the starters I mentioned earlier some won’t pitch in the big leagues next year but more than five of them almost certainly will and there are plenty of reasons to think any or all of them could have at least as much success in the bullpen as they’ve had in the rotation.”

Hitting has been problematic but some pieces look strong. Every year, we hear about Merrifield needing to traded but since 2016, he has hit .292 and presently hitting .276 which for him is a down year. He is in top five in hits among both leagues and is number one in the American League. Nicky Lopez is hitting over .290 and now doing what he did in the minors, hit to all field and get on base. He is also 19 for 19 in stolen bases, never been caught. While he had a rough start in the majors as a hitting but in both Double A and Triple A, he hit over .300. So what he is doing now, he was doing in the minors. Salvy Perez has been great with his power and still a great catcher.

Andrew Benintendi was hitting well before he fractured his ribs but lately he has raised his average to .263 with 14 homers. He also played great defense and has replaced the great defensive skills of Alex Gordon. The problem with the Royals is number 5 thru 9. Mondesi has been injured most of the year and has been injured prone in his career. Hunter Dozier and Ryan O’Hearn has yet shown they are long term solution. In 2018, O’Hearn had a good year but nothing since then and Dozier had a good 2019, signed a long term deal but has disappointed since. Soler was the DH and occasional right fielder but while he had 13 homers at the break, he was hitting .192. (but is now hitting .285 with the Braves and 10 homers. He is looking like the Soler of 2019 who hit 48 homers and led the majors. ) Carlos Santana is only hitting .220 but does have 19 homers. Without consistent hitting behind the top four batters hurt the offense

The good news is that Royals have help on the way with Bobby Witt who has hit 31 homers and hitting over .300, M.J. Melendez with 36 homers and Nicky Pratto with 29 homers. They are others including Kyle Isabel who is hitting .271 with 15 homers at Omaha and Vinnie Pasquantino with 22 homers and hitting over.300 at high A and at Double A.

The question for the Royals, is how close are they? David Lesky noted, “Man, this Royals team is annoying, huh? They’re 10-9 against the White Sox, 4-3 against the Astros, 4-0 against the Brewers, 3-1 against the Mariners and you can even include 9-7 against the Tigers, who have been generally pretty good since the first month of the season. But even with the win last night, they’re under .500 against the Orioles, Rangers, Angels, Cardinals and Indians, all teams they should either beat or be competitive with. I talked last week about their record against mediocre teams, but the Orioles and Rangers are downright bad and the Royals weren’t able to win more than they lost against those teams this year.” Against the good teams, they have been competitive but to be a playoff team, you have to beat bad teams. They are 21-13 against White Sox, Mariners, Astros and Brewers but Indians and Cardinals have dominated the Royals.

David Lesky noted, “With the good, it means that they’ve got enough talent to beat these good teams. With the bad, it means that they probably aren’t treating all 162 as important. Maybe that’s not the worst thing in the world, but also if they’re ever going to actually win anything, they’ll need to find a way to bank wins against those teams.” He is right.

My own view is that 2022 can be like 2013, maybe 2014 but it comes down to the younger starters taking a step up. Hernandez looks like a top starter and Lynch has shown he can be a number two. Kowar and Singer have the skills and Keller is only 26 years. We are talking Kowar, Singer, Keller, Lynch, and Hernadez and if you want to go 6 man rotation, you have Bubic.

As for the offense, I don’t see O’Hearn or Dozier long term but Dozier has a long term deal but Witt, Jr is one of those one in a generation player who can play defense, run the bases and hit for power plus average. I am a homer for the Royals but there are holes in this team that need to be address. Michael Taylor is a great defensive center field but he is a .240 hitter. Can you afford a .240 center who plays great defense? Only if the other 7 or 8 hitters carry the load. If you have only 4 hitters, a good defensive center field who is a mediocre hitter is a unaffordable luxury. Mondesi is a good athlete who is now trying third base with Lopez staying at short and Merrifield at second. That could be a solid infield.

Pitching is the key and over the past three years, Royals drafting has drafted enough pitching potential. Royals Review concluded, “For all the criticism the Royals have borne in recent years for failing to develop enough talented pitchers to support their ambitions we must also give them credit now that they have begun producing valuable big league pitchers at such a high rate. Their recent success in drafting and development has opened up a path to contention not wholly-reliant on insane amounts of luck for the first time since at least 2017 and they must attack it with gusto. It is not an easy, simple, or safe path but it is a path. The saying goes that fortune favors the bold. The Royals were bold in drafting so many college pitchers at the start of the 2018 draft. They were bold in overhauling their development process to ensure these pitchers successfully reached the big leagues in a position to truly contribute to the success of the club. Now they must be bold enough to fill the remaining holes on the team with something more than cast-offs, bargains, or wishful thinking. If they do, we just might see the third Royals playoff team in the last nine years.”

Issues with Pandemic defense.

Here is the problem with the Lockdown and economic restrictions argument. First my opponents have yet to come to grips of the damage our response to overall society.

I haven’t even touched on other impact including additional suicides, drug overdose increases, chronic diseases not being treated, delayed in screenings for cancer and other diseases. There are more than enough data to show more people have died or will PREMATURELY DIE.

One critic wants us to take New York out as outlier, now that is cherry picking. When reviewing bigger states run by GOP and Democrat governors, we found Demographics, density and age were similar. Not only that the Democratic states may have had slight advantages.

States like Illinois and Pennsylvania have similar per capita death data to similar Republican states like Florida, Georgia, Texas and Ohio. And they have higher unemployment due to their policies.

So unless you can defend the higher unemployment by Democrat states (we are talking 30% higher on the average, look at the data ) was worth the sacrifice or the delay in opening the schools, the increase suicide and drug overdoses, then you have no legitimate argument.

Lockdown and economic restrictions in the loss of freedom, loss jobs and businesses failed in stemming the virus. That is not even no longer debatable.

Luck and sports

The Phoenix Suns have been the luckiest team. In their opening round, Anthony Davis was injured during their playoff series and Lebron James was forced to carry the Lakers.

Nuggest were missing Jamal Murry, their top guard and the outside compliment to Most Valuable player Jokic and the Suns took advantage to sweep the Nuggets.

Clippers were missing Kawhli Leonard over the last three games of their series and while Paul George had a great series, but Suns played well and even won two games with Chris Paul out for Covid restrictions.

Now they play Milwaukee who managed to win their last two games against the Hawks without Giannis Antetokoumpo, but the Hawks were missing Trae Young with sore ankle for one game and Young was hampered by his ankle in the deciding game.

Will Antetokoumpo be available for the final series? While the Bucks have a good team even without Giannis but he is one of the two super stars in this series, with Chris Paul the other. Both teams have good players, Suns have a rising star in Devin Booker and Bucks have Kris Middleton. Brooks Lopez was a regular 20 point scorer with the Brooklyn Nets and while he has averaged 12 to 13 points a game since leaving the Nets but he was playing with Lebron James in LA and Giannis was the super star who along with Middleton, who are the two scorers. Lopez is support and Suns have the young Deandre Ayton who has a good playoffs. Both teams have talented support players.

This NBA playoff has been as much a survival match as key injuries have hurt teams during the playoffs. Celtics began the playoffs without Jaylen Brown, Nets played without Irving and Hardin much of their playoff run and in their last two games with Bucks, Irving was out and Hardin was playing with one leg.

Key players have been hurt at crucial times and the nearly year of straight year of playing with summer session followed by short off season. So the finals is upon of us and the survival of the fittest continues.

What a good exchange look likes

Had a great exchange with Jason twitter and here is the exchange.

Jason: You’re definitely in the league of cherry-picking and manipulating data to support your cognitive bias, and no I am not in that league with you…agreed. Yet, your rebuttal doesn’t actual address my point. Redirecting the argument is not a “rebuttal”. Try again

Tom: I did rebut your arguments and that others. You have failed to respond to my arguments that the cost of lockdowns have been worse that dealing with the virus. Thanks for the response and will use your shallow thinking on my timeline on the failure of your thought process.

From here the tone changes

Jason: That is a different argument, and one I actually agree with you on. My point was in your depiction of infection and death rates. You disingenuously discount the fact that comparing Dem states (that have the most densely populated cities) is a false equivalence to Rep states.

Tom: I referred to studies that dealt with density of population, noted that many GOP bigger states have density and demographics to bigger blue states. Illinois and Pennsylvania are similar to Florida and other red states in per capita death.

Jason: When you use misleading data to build toward your ultimate point, your intended argument loses it’s validity and credibility. It’s unfortunate because you make some valid points…but it seems you need to take classes in argument structure.

Tom: You have missed my entire argument namely lockdowns failed to stem the infection and had higher cost to society. That was my argument and your friends failed to see that. Since you agree with them on this We may not be far apart

Jason: I’m not sure who my friends are that you are referring to. I agree with you that draconian restrictions did more harm than good in the grand scheme of things, but I think it’s a more nuance argument than what you are presenting.

Jason: I hear you. Twitter wars are futile, but I think we all need to be careful when making “seemingly” ideologic points

Tom: I was referring to Sean and Dennis who fail to see my larger point or respond to it like you are now doing. Normally I avoid twitter wars but since you are willing to look at overall data, this was worth while exchange. But I will add there are individuals like Andy Slavett who have refuses to see the damage of the lockdown.

Tom: My data is not misleading, and my argument is sound. Trust me, I had others validate my overall data. How would you make the argument?

Jason My argument, specific to population density, is that you cannot aptly compare a city like New York or Chicago to even the largest cities in red states. And even if you could, then your data should compare those cities as opposed to the states, otherwise the data is diluted

Tom: Good point but I chose states and we compared them in different ways as to ensure the best numbers possible

Tom: I am going to apologize to you since you understood my arguments but had serious question about methodology and allowed me to flush it out. Have a good day.

Jason: I appreciate that and thank you as well.

Jason had serious question about the data and we discussed my methodology. Unfortunately, these discussion end up in name calling. Certainly when some of tweeters question your intellect, do you get into a pissing contest? Jason challenge me and decided to go for it. Interesting conversation went from insults to serious discussion on methodology. I defended my methodology and he understood what I was doing. He made reasonable recommendations but I stand by our methodology and the general point. For me, it is not about just death per capita but the overall impact of the lockdown and economic restrictions.

Tweet 9/7

Tonight I had a brilliant analysis on my recent research and easily swept my critics arguments. “Ignores so many factors, especially the big death tolls early on in the big blue cities. Gop states have so many advantages and yet death rate the same as blue states” My response: The Democrat bigger states had 57% whites, 31% Blacks and Hispanics and 8 % Asians vs GOP 56% Whites, 34% Black and Hispanics and 4% Asians. If there is any advantages, it belongs to Democratic states.

My response is simple. Professor Reilly research for our foundation noted in three studies, there was no significant difference in death per capita with non-lockdown studies and lockdown, Republican states vs Democratic states.

But saw significant difference in unemployment between Republican and Democratic States plus lockdown vs non lockdown states. My data collection mirrors his. He included variable just as Density population

But saw significant difference in unemployment between Republican and Democratic States plus lockdown vs non lockdown states. My data collection mirrors his. He included variable just as Density population.

“You’ve not taken into account that worst deaths in Democratic-run states was in the very early days of the pandemic when next-to-nothing was known about how to deal with the virus. GOP-run states COULD have learned from that to avoid deaths, but chose not to. ” Yes we did

Professor Reilly research for our foundation and my own research took this in account. Following bigger states, we found significant difference in unemployment with Democratic states with higher unemployment and higher death per capita.

The Democrat bigger states had 57% whites, 31% Blacks and Hispanics and 8 % Asians vs GOP 56% Whites, 34% Black and Hispanics and 4% Asians. If there is any advantages, it belongs to Democratic states.

GOP states and non lockdown states had 4-4.5% vs Democratic states 5.9-6.6%. What Lockdown supporters have failed to acknowledge the trade off in chronic diseases not being properly treated or not diagnosed early,

My research associates and I have produced four studies on the impact on the lockdown over the past years from April 2020 to May 2021 and another one will come sometimes this fall. We looked at racial demographics, density of population and other variables.

We looked at different definitions of what constitute a Republican states and Democratic states. Many researchers had their definition of constitute a GOP states and Democratic states. All of these research had similar results no matter how you define these states.

We looked GOP states in two ways, Republican governors and Democratic governors or if a state had a complete control of government by one party. The results were the same, no significant differences in deaths but big differences in unemployment.

As I will mention in a upcoming book, it is hard to tell where the pandemic impact hurt the economy and where bad government policies hurt the economy. We been in the midst of recovery since the end of May 2020 but Democratic governors and Biden economic policies is slowing down the recovery. We should have a stronger recovery, lower unemployment than present and less government debt and spending. Less inflation. I will repeat, the Lockdown and economic restrictions failed. My data and others proves it!!!

Changing of the Guard

Jenson Booksby won the first set against Novak Djokovic 6-1. and while Djokovic won the next three sets but the 20 year old showed potential of being contender for a major. He is a grinder, similar to a young Nadal.

British Emma Raducanu easily beat Shelby Rogers who just took care of the number seeded Barty. She is now in the quarter finals along with Leyhla Fernandez, anotheer 18 year old.

Carlos Alcaraz is another 18 year old male who is also in the quarterfinals. Djokovic is 34 as he goes for number 21 and a calendar grand slam. In the women Tennis, we are seeing potentially two stars who can be the next super stars.

US Open continues

The youth brigade continues, as Carlos Alcaraz, Spain’s 18-year-old sensation, beat German qualifier Peter Gojowczyk to move into the quarterfinal, 5-7, 6-1, 5-7, 6-2, 6-0 for his first time.

Leylah Fernandez upset Angelique Kerber a former champion 4-6, 7-6, 6-2 to continue her run as she reaches the quarter final.

Jay Brooksby faces his toughest test as he faces Djokovic but it has been a good tournament for the youngster.

Tweet September 5th

eceived interesting comments from all sides but no one has bothered to discuss the wide difference in unemployment and ask or answer the question, was the trade off of the lockdowns and economic restrictions worth the higher unemployment?

Updated data on states: among GOP governors, the average death per capita was 184 to 180 for Democratic states. That represent 2% difference. Top 8 populous states, There is 221 deaths per 100,000 in Democratic states vs 204 in GOP states. This represent a 8% difference-GOP.S

No real statistic difference in deaths but major differences in unemployment. Proof the Lockdowns failed in saving lives but economic damage was far worse.

Democrat run states had 20 per 100,000 less death but 2300 per 100,000 more unemployed. Overall 2 per 100,000 more people died from Covid in GOP states but Democrats had 2000 per 100,000 unemployed. That is the trade off.212S

Updated data on states: among GOP governors, the average death per capita was 184 to 180 for Democratic states. That represent 2% difference. Top 8 populous states, There is 221 deaths per 100,000 in Democratic states vs 204 in GOP states. This represent a 8% difference-GOP.

Put it this way. Among 50 states, there was 1600 per 100,000 more people unemployed under Democrat governors, 2100 per 100,000 in most populous states, and among Democratic control states, 2300 per 100,000 more unemployed for an average of 2000 per 100,000 per unemployed.

In the first study, 4 per 100,000 died from Covid in GOP states but they had stronger economy with 1600 more per 100,000 employed. Among bigger states, the GOP governors have lower death and lower unemployment.

New Generation appearing

A friend asked me, with Nadal, Federer, and the Williams not appearing, what the fans would be. The first match I witnessed, the fans were quiet during the Keys-Stephens match but as the match moved forward, the fans got more into it and by the third set, the fans were roaring and continued to roar throughout the week.

Listening to the fans during the Alcaraz – Tsitsipas match and Osaka-Fernandez, the two 18 years had fans roaring for them. Many watching may have felt, they were watching the future of Tennis. This whole week, the fans were glad to be watching and many players loved the roar of the crowd, which was missing from 2020 Open, a tournament played in front of empty stands.

As for Osaka, she is now considering a break from Tennis, saying there is no joy in Tennis.