More thoughts 3/20/2020

On the Crown Princess 17% to 20% of those on ships got Chinese virus and based on worldometers numbers 3% of South Korean have caught the virus based on number tested.

Let just say if 20% of Americans received  coronavirus, that would be 66,000,000 infected and at 1% the death would be 660,000, which puts it in line with Spanish flu overall mortality.  (while we lost nearly 660,000 in the Spanish Flu but that would be the equal of 2,000,000).   Right now as to today, we are seeing US mortality rate at 1.3% and new cases today mortality rate was .5%.  So we most likely seeing a lower rate than 1% since we are not testing many mild cases and we won’t.  So at .5%, we are at 330,000 deaths.  Worse case scenaro.

If we take the Korean numbers, we would be talking slightly under 10,000,000.   That means we are talking at 1%, 100,000 death and at .5% it is 50,000 or a very bad flu season.  

So depending upon the numbers infected overall and with all of our social media and shutting down the economy, we will be close to the Korean numbers.  Now if we choose to open up the economy a little more and take a chance on more getting infected,  we would most likely with deaths far lower than what we talking about. 

My own view is that Trump keeps the mortality low below worst case scenaro and doesnt blow up the economy, he will be remembered foundly.  It also depends upon putting the virus i proper perspective.

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