Today Tweet 3/20/2020

Part One

Just finished reading James Grant on the Depression of 1920. A few observations. One, despite the Spanish flu and the death of 657,000 Americans which equals 2,000,000 today, there was a boom in 1919. Economy continued.

Second, the Feds overshoot and created inflation in which it took 18 months to clear up. (Harding did most of the right thing, to clear up this depression.) We are now doing the stimulus minus the boom but eventually a day of reckoning on Keynesian stimulus will occur.

Third, lessons are that the economy can hum on nicely in a pandemic far worse than what we will see with Wuhun virus. The question is too late? It may be and considering the advice Trump is being given, it is not looking promise.

Part Two

Trump is about to lose 2020 election if he doesn’t change his economic plan. And America will lose in a big way since we have political opposition is socialist party in all but name only and will allow China to take over world leadership.

Part Three

Chloroquine is looking effective. But here are some issues to consider. First with an effective drug, you can continue with the guidelines while getting America back to work. So that is the good news.

Issue one as I have mention before is production.  Can we produce in massive amount needed a drug with limited indication or use in the West?

In the initial phrase of the HIV epidemic, the anti-retroviral were given at too high of dose and we found lower dose worked as well with less adverse effects. Three the FDA may be scared off by adverse events and may take it off the market for this indication.

Risk vs benefits need to be considered and any company marketing or producing this should be exempted from liability. Risk of a depressed economy is worse than adverse events from the drug. This drug or combination with Azithromycin is a cure all but a good first step.

In the initial HIV epidemic, we found effective drugs, but we also found the initial adverse events were high. We found lower doses worked with less events. I suspect we will find the same.