The Corona Virus Impact, Health Threat, Economic and Foreign Affairs (first draft of a major report not yet completed)

The present economic turndown is the fault of government policies not free markets.  Government told businesses to shut down to stop the pandemic and as one meme goes, we had our 30 days of socialism, how did you like it?  Yes, it was socialism and many governors and mayors has shown their inner dictatorship as they issued all kinds of rules and regulations, some of which contradicted each other.  Many states are looking to reopen but others are not in a hurry, so we are looking at the nation rolling out over the next two or three months in phases.

Pandemics are not good for the economy and shutting down the economy may be looked at an extreme mistake down the road.  The original data coming from China was there was nothing to worry about and many of our own scientists, who was giving advice to Donald Trump, didn’t fear the virus only to become fearful when we found out the Chinese were lying and World Health Organization proved to be their puppet.  Original numbers showing high mortality rates with Italy at 10% scared many, but these data were based on incomplete data. 

Jonathan Geach explained this further, “According to the Johns Hopkins coronavirus research center, COVID-19 has a CFR of about 5.7 percent in the United States. This means that someone who tests positive for the coronavirus has a 5.7 percent chance of dying of the disease. But this is not an accurate estimate of the fatality associated with COVID-19. Why? Because the sickest people are tested first, and many people who are and were infected with COVID-19 are never tested at all…To put this in perspective: Last winter 250,000 people tested positive for the flu. 25,000 died. If these numbers are right, the CFR for the flu is 10 percent … but that can’t be right…And, in fact, it isn’t. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates that, although only 250,000 people tested positive for the flu last year, 39 million people actually got it. Generally, only those who are older or otherwise unhealthy, or those who have a severe case, go to the doctor and get tested for the flu; everyone else just takes Motrin and Tylenol and stays home. This drives up the CFR dramatically.”1

The present data was based on two things, the first is definition of Covid death was expanded and inflated the total and the second reason is that we were not counting mild or asymptomatic cases.  Recent studies done including Austria, California, New York and Germany are showing morality rate between .1 to .8, underneath 1% mortality rate. At the lower range, it is similar to the flu and the upper range certainly higher than typical flu season or even the worse flu seasons.  It is far less than 3 to 10% numbers often use and should leave policy makers wondering did we go too far.   We used incomplete data and models that proved to be inaccurate by wide margins and some models revised as much as 20-fold downward to based policies on.  Countries like Taiwan and South Korea showed the virus could be contain without sinking the economy and Sweden decided to not to shut down the economy and we are now witnessing an experiment on Swedish model versus the shutdown model. 

There have been articles in which different standards used to report death to the COVID virus, so we may not have a complete accuracy of the numbers of the death. The new data show percentage of mortality is lower but while it is more lethal than the flu, but it is not SARS or even Spanish flu.  Think of this way, flu will kill 1 out of thousand people while Covid-19 virus may kill 5 out of thousands.  As Geach noted, the 5.7% number used is inaccurate based on incomplete numbers.  The Spanish flu may have killed 25 to 50 out of thousand, so we are far below the numbers of the Spanish flu, but policy makers are treating this as if we are treating the Spanish flu or worse, SARS.  This have to be included that in our economic decision.  As someone who has polled hundreds of thousands, I view much of the data collection the equal of polling a state but polling only 50 percent of the state or less. A candidate pollster who did this would be providing his or her candidate an incomplete picture and this could cost an election. Policy makers are basing data on incomplete data while not looking at the economic data.2

Economist Casey Mulligan estimated, “that the shutdown of nonessential businesses reduces market production by almost $6 trillion per year of shutdown. Relief efforts further reduce the current value of future economic activity by about $2 trillion per year of shutdown. Black markets and additional time in the nonmarket sector replace about $2 trillion of the $8 trillion of lost market production. I estimate that the value of nonmarket production falls below what it would be if the normal market inputs were available by about $1 trillion per year of shutdown. The sum of these puts the welfare costs at about $7 trillion per year of shutdown.”  He added that we are looking at either budget cuts or increase taxes nearly 2 trillion dollars to deal with the aftermath of this crisis.3

The key to recovery begins with medical innovation which it is estimated that within a year, medical discoveries add more than trillion dollars. It is estimated by Mulligan that a Covid-19 vaccine would not only save lives but save 28 billion dollars for each working day once normal activity returns.  The key in this Pandemics is that old rules of regulations has to be change.  In a pandemic, the demand for the treatment or vaccine occurs in just a span of a few months.  Mulligan suggests that entire population should be allowed to part of any later phrase trials.  Or everyone is rolled into a phrase three.  What needs to be asked, is the shutdown worth the economic costs and what if the economic cost more than the shutdown effort to save lives or even cost more.  The cost to the economy is high and there has been significant damage one.  Thus, looking at ending the shutdown with the goal of recreating a more normal economy may be necessity.  

The lessons from the 1918 to 1920 Spanish flu was that pandemic had an impact on the economy but so did interventionist government policies.  Federal reserve money pumping along with an economy that still had many features of the war economy in place including boards controlling industries and high tax rates.  The situation today is similar with the Federal reserve pumping out money, a deep recession as result of government interventionist policies on a Federal and State levels. A Federal reserve study noted, “First, the pandemic leads to a sharp and persistent fall in real economic activity. We find negative effects on manufacturing activity, the stock of durable goods, and bank assets, which suggests that the pandemic depresses economic activity through both supply and demand-side effects. Second, cities that implemented more rapid and forceful non-pharmaceutical health interventions do not experience worse downturns.”4 The recovery from the 1920 recession came as result when Harding administration moves toward austerity accompanied by tax cuts and budget cuts plus tariffs and the recovery came in the second half of 1921.  (Many economists would argue that the Harding’s tariffs were not a boost to recovery but an obstacle.)

We have seen how to recover from deep recession or depression, and it begins with free market policies and the relaxation of government policies.  UCLA Cole and Ohanian research showed that the government interventionist polices of Hoover caused the Depression and FDR policies in his first term delayed recovery as the unemployment never went below 10 percent in the 1930’s. About Hoover policies, Lee Ohanian wrote, “conclude that the Depression is the consequence of government programs and policies, including those of Hoover, that increased labor’s ability to raise wages above their competitive levels. The Depression would have been much less severe in the absence of Hoover’s program.”5

Ohanian added, “Presidents Hoover and Roosevelt shared similar goals of fostering industrial collusion and increasing real wages and raising labor’s bargaining power. Hoover accomplished these goals during a period of deflation by inducing in dustry to maintain nominal wages, and by promoting and signing legislation that facilitated union organization and that increased wages above competitive levels, including the Davis-Bacon Act and the Norris-LaGuardia Act. Roosevelt accomplished these goals with the NIRA and the Wagner Act, both of which raised wages well above competitive levels while increasing industrial collusion.”6 Other theories included the Federal Reserve tightening money and contributing to deflation and other bad government policies also contributed including Hoover engaging in tax increases and increasing government spending.  Hoover signed Smoot-Hawley tariff in which already high tariffs went even higher and set the stage for a trade war that choked off international trade. Hoover intervention in the economy set the stage for the great Depression.

Harold Cole and Lee Ohanian added, “There are two striking aspects of the recovery from the Great Depression in the United States: the recovery was very weak and real wages in several sectors rose significantly above trend. These data contrast sharply with neoclassical theory, which predicts a strong recovery with low wages.” FDR loosen monetary policy which helped but many of the New Deal program delayed recovery throughout the decades as output never matched what was seen before the Great Depression.

Obama recovery paled in comparison to the Reagan recovery even though unemployment was slightly higher at the beginning of the Reagan recession than the Obama recession.  Obama recovery was far weaker than the Reagan recovery and present Democrat proposal features far more government interventionist and essentially socialistic.  These policies are to the left of even the Obama plan.  The key will be removal of the present government policies that is stunting economic growth, in particular on a state level.  You need a private sector to grow to reignite the economy growth and one example was Reagan approach which unleashed the private sector and led two-decade growth.  Democrats idea of raising minimum wages, and green new deals will not only suffocate the recovery but ensure a long economic downturn that will last for years.

Voters are divided on where to go as far as opening the economy  In a survey in Michigan swing counties, 51% of the voters feared that feared our health care system would be overwhelmed versus 45% stating that job losses and economic devastation as more threatening.  In Wisconsin 7th congressional district, 46% viewed the health care being overwhelmed as the greatest threate and 48% feared devastation of the economy.   57% in Michigan wanted restrictions reduced along with 50% in Wisconsin compared to 35% of Michigan voters along with 46% of Wisconsin voters wanting the restrictions continued.  There is slight agreement that the economy should be reopened but undecided if the threat to our health care system or the economy is worse. 

Rasmussen on April 16th reported 58% of voters nationwide fear the healthcare system being overwhelmed and 36% fear the economic consequences.  23% voters feel the economy needs to open up by May 1st, another 27th need to open up by mid-June but 33% states the government must decide it is the right time to open up the economy.  Nationwide at this time, it is not universally accepted that it is time to reopen and they fear the virus more than the economic consequences   36% of voters state that it is time to reopen the economy but 49% disagree.

Another aspect of this is the foreign policy side.  Rasmussen polls 47% of voters blame China whereas 42% blame Trump. Independent by a 49% to 36% margin blame China along with 71% of Republicans but 60% of Democrats blame Trump for the virus outbreak and its spread.  In battleground states, we found nearly 60% of Wisconsin 7th district voters and 78% of Michigan swing counties blame China. These voters overwhelming supported the travel ban and voters also view impeachment as a waste of time.

The biggest lesson that should be learned is that human ingenuity when unleashed can go a long way to solve problems whether it is finding drugs off the shelve that can save lives or new tests to find the Coronavirus in five minutes. Our recovery begins when we recognize that free men and women can rise above the crisis and reinvent our country and planet. The longer the shutdown continues, the worse our prospects will be. Don Boudreaux and Alberto Mingardi wrote, “Today, though, rather than trying to stimulate activity in the wake of the pandemic, governments are aiming to stop it. And at this task, everyone must agree, governments are performing splendidly… Once the coronavirus is under control, restarting the economy faces many obstacles—especially social distancing. If we continue to remain at arms’ length from one another, we will hamper our natural “propensity to truck, barter, and exchange,” identified by Adam Smith as a key source of economic growth.”7   The challenge to policymakers is to restart an economy with many of its feature have already disappeared.   Economy based on secure property rights along with free markets, can recover quickly if market prices and producers’ ability to profit are allowed. 

Our present strategy is the complete opposite as many businesses are told not to produce and are restricted in not just how to produce, but even they are allowed to produce.  Democrats future economic plan proposed by Joe Biden and the Democratic Congress is even worse as they will continue to control the economy on a national scale, expanding upon what many governors are already doing. The Green New Deal is not about saving the planet but is designed to transform the economy beginning with telling utility companies what energy sources they will use, what kind of automobile you can drive, size of your home and the elimination of businesses just as the fossil fuel industry. Raising the minimum wage beyond what the market will ensure that many on the bottom of the economic ladder will not get jobs or rehired and 15 dollars an hour is beyond much of what the market will charge. 

Democrat governors have shown that on a local level they have moved beyond regulating businesses but also how individuals behave. While some recommendations make sense just as wearing masks and social distancing will reduce viral transmission, others are simply overkill just as Michigan outlawing planting gardens. 

We have dealt with these issues with our last report, The Pursuit Economic Growth, as we detailed a series of goals and ideas to spread the economic growth through the Middle Class and urban centers.  We pushed a series of reforms, creating an entrepreneur class to go with an investor class as well as tax reforms, budget reforms and trade.

Several principles for a future recovery must be adhere to.  The first principles as stated by Don Boudreaux and Alberto Mingardi, “What we need is not more fuel pumped into the GDP machine but assurances that its internal processes aren’t blocked. Governments have purposefully stopped the economy. To get it moving again, we eventually must remove obstacles that keep individuals from participating in market processes, both as consumers and as specialized producers.”8

The market collapsed has put our ideas of putting an investor class in jeopardy and our plans to create an entrepreneur class is threatened by many Governors actions whose shutdown has already killed many businesses.  So, we need to open up the economy and be rid of obstacles that will prevent many businesses from starting back up. 

As I wrote about Democrats economic theory, “What is missing from this formula is the creation of wealth. How often during the 2012 election did we hear from Obama or Senator Warren that entrepreneurs didn’t build their business but government did through the creation of roads and schools; entrepreneurs and business merely were inventions of government policies as oppose to being created by entrepreneurs themselves.  Businesses, say the democratic socialists, are to be servant of the government, contributing to what the government deems necessary… all of economics is a zero-sum game in which a producer of underarm deodorants are stealing food from hungry children and government must step in to guide businesses in the right direction while taking from the wealthy to share with the Middle Class and the poor.”9

We will see at least three trillion dollars deficits when this crisis passes, and this has proved a Donelson Thesis “that government positive policies will benefit an economy on the margins, if it allows the private sector to function and innovate. The ability of bad government policies to do great harm is massive.”   As Don Boudreaux and Alberto Mingardi noted, “Today, though, rather than trying to stimulate activity in the wake of the pandemic, governments are aiming to stop it. And at this task, everyone must agree, governments are performing splendidly.”10   Government policies can be a blunt object and that blunt instrument that has close the economy and sent millions of people unemployed.  When this is over, this may be seen as the worst mistake made in a generation.  What is missing is a plan to restart the economy and while it is easy to stop an economy in its place, it is even harder to restart one and be rid of the government obstacles shackling the economy in place.

The goals begin with getting our economy started by opening the economy and the difficulty of running an economy in a pandemic is difficult, something seen in the Pandemic of 1918 to 1920 where output and economy activity slowed down.  The Pandemic came on the heel of nation straddle with government obstacles, including war boards design to run the economy and high tax rates to pay for the war, left over from World War I and a Federal Reserve that first expanded monetary policy that produce inflation and then a severe recession that unemployment may have reached 15%.  The recovery began when the economy was liberated, and the Pandemic eventually ended. 

There most likely will be no V shape recovery that many predicted at the end of this year and into 2021.   The right policy can produce a lasting recovery beginning with tax rates not raised higher but lower on businesses and individuals combined with removing the cap on the social security and Medicare tax (FICA) tax, which would raise taxes on the wealthy.  We showed that if you lower FICA tax by 1% and remove the cap, it would raise 90 billion dollars per year.11

We talk about dealing the budget in our report, “The other part is what we already mention that we need to review both spending and regulations.  Trump administration efforts to deregulate the economy is showing some benefit and regrowth by reducing the government impact upon the economy. On the budget side, no one can disagree that spending has substantially increased and there is very little stomach at this point to reform the entitlement program.  Democrats are not only looking to expand entitlements including Medicare for all that would expand the entitlement program to almost all Americans so first battle may just be keeping the welfare state from exploding.  The best strategy may be to review spending either by repeating what Republicans forced Obama to accept sequester to reduce the growth of spending or simply start reviewing departments and look for either elimination or cut back just as Department of Energy, especially since the fracking revolution has made the Department obsolete.” 12

Over the next few years, there will be little stomach for entitlement reforms, even they will eventually be needed.  In an economic downturn, you will not get a consensus for any entitlement reforms, but we can begin with present budget and there is plenty to cut or reduce.  Eliminate or reduce departments will not only reduce the budget but in many cases, be important in reducing regulations which will be a necessity to remove obstacles to growth. 

Trump pointed out the weakness of globalization that the political class fail to see and understand that globalization can’t work with when rogue nations refuse to play by the rules, and they taking advantage of a virus and economy ravaged from their incompetence and lies. China has put our planet at risk and lives of billions due to their mishandling and now continues to lie about their role in the virus.  China is the weak link in globalization, and we must recognize that. 

China lied from the very beginning about the virus beginning in December and one study showed that if the Chinese had acted three weeks early, they could have stopped the virus from leaving China.13 China and WHO were telling the world middle of January that there was no human to human transmission, an outright lie and they allowed Chinese national to leave China after locking down Wuhan.  This move helped to spread the virus. 

The media has often reiterated Chinese talking points including how successful the Chinese have been even though anyone with any common sense would know Chines numbers are simply questionable if not bogus.  A recent story that Chinese have closed movie theaters again and several reports escaping China about the numbers of bodies being cremated and riots breakouts between Chinese provinces as polices from different provinces fight for jurisdiction on stopping the virus.  Many Asian sources that the total infection and death totals are significantly higher than being reported.14 One estimation puts the Chinese infected at conservatively nearly three million and death significantly higher.15 The news that US has surpassed China in total number has been treated as a Trump failure even though as mention, no serious journalist should even take Chinese numbers with a straight face.  This regime unleashed the virus with their incompetence and even sold Spain and Czech Republic thousands of test kits. 

The real test will be whether the United States uncouple itself from China?  This won’t be as easy as many of our products are already manufacture there and to move them to United States would encompasses economic sacrifice.  We will not be able to transfer all of our manufacturing back to the United States or even our NAFTA partners without economic costs. While some manufacturing can be brought back home including our pharmaceutical, we will need to find dependable supply chain.  India was originally going to not export Hydroxychloroquine to the United States and keep the raw materials home for their own population but relented after a phone call from Trump.  India stands to profit in the long run as becoming part of our supply chain and maybe replace some of what is manufacturing in China and this move may have been designed to show the rest of the world they can be depended upon.16 In my book “The Rise of National Populism and Democratic Socialism, What Our Response Should be,” I wrote, “.  India, for many years, has set itself apart from the West, but in recent years, this is beginning to change. Gone are the days of reflective anti-American attitudes that infiltrated Indian leadership and there is a more balanced approach to world events.  It will be imperative among American policy makers to encourage India to become a permanent member of the Anglosphere.”17

About trade policies, I wrote, “Throughout our history, it was not uncommon for American presidents to seek temporary economic rehabilitation against other countries to open up trade opportunities for American goods and services.  Both President Reagan and President George H.W. Bush did this, putting “tariffs” on selected goods and industries from other countries.  But their goal was to liberalize trade not to restrict it, and both presidents made sure these steps were temporary, and used as a means to open up trade and reduce barriers to American goods.” Free trade Presidents have been willing to use tariffs to open up trade.” 18

In the effort to decouple China will mean continuing trade troubles with the second largest economy and we will see tariffs on China goods, but it does beg the question where do we go to increase our markets?  Many nationalists have promoted an industrial policy and some cases an autarky economic policy, but an industrial policy has its limitation since it puts the government in a position of picking winner and losers.  However we do have options beginning with expanding the NAFTA to include Great Britain, New Zealand and Australia, into a giant Anglosphere trading bloc and begin to negotiate with European Union or European nations if the European Union collapses in the wake of the Virus pandemic.  We can add to the trading bloc with Democratic European nations by adding South Korea and Japan.  We may want to design strategies to help develop India as an economic counterweight to China as well as build up other nations like Indonesia as future economic partners.  These moves will be more a managed trade but if it is liberalized trade beginning with Democratic and economic advance nations, we can make up for disruption of China trade. 

The biggest challenge will be stopping the Democrat Party and the left socialistic plans to transform and control the economy.  We are starting to see what a Democratic socialism government would look like and is it not pretty.  If Trump loses, it will begin a socialistic governance in all, but name transformation and any recovery will be not only delay but never appear in the next decade, if ever.

The question facing policy makers when to open up the economy and what the cost will be if they don’t.  We are getting an idea of the mortality of the virus and it is far less than originally supposed. With studies from Austria, Germany, New York, and California, we are seeing rates from .1 percent to .77 percent.  The low range will be in the range of the flu and that higher number higher than the flu but far less than the Spanish flu.  We are closing the economy for a virus that will kill between 1 out of 1000 to 7 out of 1000.  If you average these studies have shown, you may be looking at .5 which means 5 out of 1000.  The Spanish flu may have killed anywhere between 25 to 50 per 1000, which is between 5 and 10 times what Coronavirus and most of the death to the Coronavirus affects those with co-morbidity and over the age of 60 whereas the  Spanish flu killed many young in addition to the elderly.   This is not saying Coronavirus is similar to the flu, it is not, but it is not the Spanish flu and we may be talking 5 out of 1000 dying versus 1 out of 1000 with the flu.  This is higher overall than the flu but if the economic downturn ends up killing more people through suicide, delayed medical care, starvation due to hunger or increase drug overdose, what is the overall benefit of saving those extra four lives?

The cost of the recession or depression could prove greater than the virus itself. For every 1 percent will produce 3.3 percent increase in drug overdose and nearly a 1 percent increase in suicides.  This data comes from medical journal just as Medical Journal Lancet and National Bureau of Economic Research.19 Jonathan Geach added this, “The state of our economy is not just a monetary risk, it is a health risk. When people lose their jobs, they typically lose their health insurance. The British Journal of Psychiatry found that there were more than 10,000 “economic suicides” as a result of the 2008 recession. Similarly, a 2016 study from The Lancet found that there were an excess 260,000 cancer deaths as a result of the recession. These statistics also fail to mention the increased domestic violence, increased child abuse and home loss when schools and businesses are closed.”20 The unemployed and under employed will suffer the consequences and they are the forgotten Americans who paying the price for this experiment. If the cost is higher to induce a depression to stop a Pandemic, shouldn’t that be a consideration?   It is not a case of open up and people die since more people most likely will die from the economic downturn. It is about making sure if there is American economy left to return to.

Models have been shown to be flawed and we are basing economic policy on these models. Many Models have been changed numerous times within a period of time to reflect new data but some of the original model were way off.  One example of this failure was the predicted mortality for five Midwest States week ended April 22nd.

Iowa on April 11th was projected to have 743 deaths but by April 22nd, projection moved to 365 or cut in half. On April 22nd, Iowa had 107 deaths.   South Dakota was projected to have 356 deaths before adjusted to 93, a significant readjustment and on April 22nd, the actual number was 10 and North Dakota and Wisconsin didn’t change much at all but the actual mortality for North Dakota was 15.  There is a good chance that neither Dakotas will even hit their low estimate as far as mortality goes and Minnesota estimate dropped from 656 to 360, a drop of nearly half in one week.  (Minnesota based their own plan based on estimate of 74,000 deaths but those numbers have long since been discarded but it didn’t stop Minnesota planners from using those numbers.) South Dakota has in the forefront of opening up their economy and didn’t impose a harsh shutdown.  

North Dakota:Iowa:South Dakota:WisconsinMinnesota
11-Apr369743356357442
15-Apr329618181338656
22-Apr35636593356360

The inconsistency and often inaccurate nature of the models matters as Anthony Fauci noted that “There are things called models, and when someone creates a model, they put in various assumptions. And the model is only as good and as accurate as your assumptions. And whenever the modelers come in, they give a worst-case scenario and a best-case scenario. Generally, the reality is somewhere in the middle. I’ve never seen a model of the diseases that I’ve dealt with where the worst-case scenario actually came out. They always overshoot.” Maybe politicians and general public might become skeptical about those models dealing with predicting climate fifty years from now when we have difficulty accurately predicting within a week the mortality rate of a Midwest state. 

Many of our experts, including those who advise the President, have themselves been wrong.  Fauci and Birks admitted that they underestimated the virus and based their initial view on what WHO and China was telling them.  Not only did they get it wrong about the virus virulence and how easy it was to transmits but they also were wrong in trusting the Chinese to begin, a mistake that Senator Tom Cotton who was one of the earliest to warn about the virus did not makeWe are told to trust the science but if the science is uncertain and evolving, how much trust can we put in the experts when they are still trying to grip with the virus?  We need to be equally skeptical about Climate change alarmists who have based much of their data on models than can’t possibly include all of the data needed to make the decision of what our climate will be in 100 years from now much less five years down the road.  Scientists have insight in their specialty, but doesn’t mean they are experts in other fields.  Asking an epidemiologist about dealing with a Pandemic, he or she will give you solid data based on years of research. Ask the same individual the impact of economic shutdown he will be less likely to give you the downsize or the cost involved in shutting down the economy.   When an economy sinks in recession or depression, it does have its own health risks and the risk of what we are presently doing may outweigh the benefits. 

China is now a rival and we have seen what the world future will be like if the China is the number one power supplementing United States. It will be a less free, less prosperous world in which the United States will see not only an economic decline but overall decline in our basic freedom we take for granted.   

China was responsible for the spread of this virus and there is even evidence, not yet proven, that the virus could have originated in the Wuhan Laboratory.   For the past century, the sins of China have become obvious from building islands in the Pacific threatening the trading lanes, stealing our industrial secret, hacking into our government system, and threatening their neighbor.  As for the virus, Chinese silenced whistleblowers and physicians who warned of the virus and allowed Chinese national to leave the country during the initial phrases of the virus outbreak. 

Chinese have been building their military and much of their data is done in a way to hide the true nature as journal Defense One noted, “An early lesson emerging from China’s handling of the COVID-19 emergency is that Beijing still manipulates data to fit its desired narrative. This has long been the case in China’s defense budget, where the party-government omits and withholds data to project a non-threatening image of its People’s Liberation Army. However, there are ways to cut through some of the mangled information…If you account for differences in reporting structure, purchasing power, and labor costs, you find that China’s 2017 defense budget provided 87 percent of the purchasing power of American’s 2017 defense budget…Further complicating accurate comparisons are the unique characteristics of China’s party-run military, such as military-civil fusionusage of state-owned enterprisetheft of intellectual property, and the embedding of party organizations in private companies. Some of these elements, even if known, are simply unquantifiable. Thus, if we seek to compare the resources Beijing dedicates to defense with what other countries are doing, our only recourse it to remove all military R&D from the calculations.”21

About China Naval Congressional Research Services concluded. “In an era of renewed great power competition, China’s military modernization effort, including its naval modernization effort, has become the top focus of U.S. defense planning and budgeting. China’s navy, which China has been steadily modernizing for more than 25 years, since the early to mid-1990s, has become a formidable military force within China’s near-seas region, and it is conducting a growing number of operations in more-distant waters, including the broader waters of the Western Pacific, the Indian Ocean, and waters around Europe. China’s navy is viewed as posing a major challenge to the U.S. Navy’s ability to achieve and maintain wartime control of blue-water ocean areas in the Western Pacific—the first such challenge the U.S. Navy has faced since the end of the Cold War—and forms a key element of a Chinese challenge to the longstanding status of the United States as the leading military power in the Western Pacific.”22

China military buildup is connected to their economic rise and attempt to become the new world superpower in the world.  The implications are clear what this means to the rest of the world. When an NBA general manager tweeted out support for Hong Kong, the Chinese made it clear to the NBA that their millions if not billions of dollars of business would be at stake.  The NBA surrender to the Chinese, even to the point of removing protester for Hong Kong who showed up at NBA games were removed.  Hollywood censor their own movies that enter the Chinese market and many within the entertainment business self-censor themselves in regard to China.  Many of the NBA social warriors not only refuse condemn China but they even went as far as to defend China and their multi million dollars contract.   What we witness is a taste of what the world would look like if China is the Superpower of the world.  Many of our own institutions are already restricting what they say about China and the number of media personalities have defended China own behavior in this crisis.  Those companies who own the major networks just as the big Three, ABC, CBS and NBC do significant business and it has produced a more favorable view of China in those media.  New York Times and the Washington Posts have run inserts from the China Daily, and who knows what they receive in payment for publishing Chinese propaganda.

Arthur Bloom gave in a recent piece examples of this control, “Disney owns ABC and has a park in Shanghai. It also owns ESPN, which was criticized for its coverage of China’s retaliation against the NBA earlier this year over one team owner’s support of the Hong Kong protests. But other than ABC, Disney is relatively uninvolved in news…Comcast, on the other hand, has a much larger footprint in the U.S. media landscape, between NBC News, CNBC, and MSNBC. The company’s role in fostering cultural exchange is truly historic: they’ve brought to millions of American homes a customer service experience akin to a utility provider in a communist country, and have invested billions to bring “Minion Land” and a Harry Potter village to Beijing, with the help of a state-owned investment vehicle.”23

China influence is already being felt within our body politics and this is just the tip of the iceberg of what will happen if China is the Superpower of the World supplementing the United States.  As mention a dark cloud will move over the world and the decline of freedom to go with decline our economic fortunes will arise. 

Summary

The present Coronavirus crisis has produced an enormous crisis for America and the conservative movement. Based on initial threat of the virus and attempt to flatten the curve, we shut down our economy and, in the process, put this election in jeopardy.  This article is attempted to make sense of this crisis while reviewing the history of both economic recoveries from Recession or Depression and the impact of Pandemics.

Among the things we should conclude:

  1. Pandemics by themselves have impact on the economy and this Pandemic would have produced a negative result on the present economy.  In hindsight, we could have done what the Swedes did, keep the economy open and reduced the damage done to the economy.
  2. Conservatives need to understand that the left will use this crisis to further their own goals of transforming American into a “Democratic Socialist” state. Joe Biden has moved to the left and will be a mere puppet in his own administration, controlled by the socialist wing of the Party.
  3. We need to make the case that free market ideas are the best way to recover quickly and have our own game plan to do exactly that including tax plans, budget plans, and ideas on both trade and regulations.
  4. China has shown itself to be a threat and we need to design new alliances to counter this threat along with trade policies that extends to our Democratic allies throughout the world.
  5. Many within our own country has allowed their own economic interest to cloud their judgement about China including the Media.
  6. Finally, design plans to ensure that we will be ready for the next Pandemics and hold China responsible for this one.

 Ronald Reagan summed up its best, “Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction.  We didn’t pass it to our children in the bloodstream. It must be fought for and handed on for them to do the same, or one day we will spend our sunset years telling our children and our children’s children what it was once like in the United States where men were free.”

Footnotes

  1. Mapping the Mortality Maze, How Deadly is Covid-19 Jonathan Geach, Ankur J. Patel, Lacy Windham Ashkan Attaran and Jason Friday.  American Spectator April 25, 2020
  2. Mapping the Mortality Maze, How Deadly is Covid-19 Jonathan Geach, Ankur J. Patel, Lacy Windham Ashkan Attaran and Jason Friday.  American Spectator April 25, 2020
  3. Economic activities and Medical innovation during a Pandemic. Casey Mulligan
  4. Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu Sergio Correia, Stephan Luck, and Emil Verne
  5. What or Who Started the Great Depression.  Lee Ohanian UCLA and Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
  6. New Deal and persistence of the Great Depression Harold Cole and Lee Ohanian May 2001 Minneapolis Federal Reserve
  7. New Deal and persistence of the Great Depression Harold Cole and Lee Ohanian May 2001 Minneapolis Federal Reserve
  8. The Economy Is Not A Machine by Don Boudreaux and Alberto Mingardi April 20, 2020 The City Journal
  9. The Economy Is Not A Machine by Don Boudreaux and Alberto Mingardi April 20, 2020 The City Journal
  10. The Rise of National Populism and Democratic Socialism, What our response Should Be?” Tom Donelson chapter Democratic Socialism
  11. The Economy Is Not A Machine by Don Boudreaux and Alberto Mingardi April 20, 2020 The City Journal
  12. The Economy Is Not A Machine by Don Boudreaux and Alberto Mingardi April 20, 2020 The City Journal
  13. Tax and Social Security in the New Paradigm by Tom Donelson Americas Majority Foundation. 2019 Pursuit of Wealth Creation 2020 by Tom Donelson, JD Johannes, and Clara Del Villar
  14. Effect of Non-Pharmacological interventions for containing COVID-19 University of South Hampton
  15. Business insider, US intelligence found China misrepresented Coronavirus state report April 1st, 20202
  16. Estimating the True Numbers of China Covid-19 Derek Scissors AEI April 7th, 2020
  17. Hydroxychloroquine consignment from Arrives in US.  April 12, 2020 Times of India
  18. The Rise of National Populism and Democratic Socialism, What our response Should Be?” Tom Donelson chapter the Rise of India and Anglosphere
  19. The Rise of National Populism and Democratic Socialism, What our response Should Be?” Tom Donelson 
  20. We must count the deaths from the Shutdown as well as COVID Betsy McCaughey New York Post April 14, 2020
  21. Mapping the Mortality Maze, How Deadly is Covid-19 Jonathan Geach, Ankur J. Patel, Lacy Windham Ashkan Attaran and Jason Friday.  American Spectator April 25, 2020, Medium Moving the Goal Posts, Four Reasons to Safe to Open Up America. April 16, 2020. 
  22. China Defense Spending Bigger than it Looks Frederico Bartels, March 25, 2020 Defense One.
  23. Congressional Research Center, China Naval Modernization: Implications for US Naval Capabilities.  March 18, 2020
  24. China Long Tentacles Runs Deep into The Media Arthur Bloom, American Conservative March 31st, 2020. 

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