Thoughts May 3rd

Through various studies, we are finding when including data from California, New York, Europe and Asia. The mortality rate is .1 to .8. anything over .1 is lethal than the flu and there are select vulnerable population that no doubt more lethal.

These are estimates but no matter, the lethal rate is far lower than presume. Let say we go with .5 rate. If 60 million are infected we are looking at 300,000 deaths worse case scenarios. 60 million is based on past flu seasons. Originally I guess that we could see 200,000.

At 200,000, this would be 1/10th of Spanish flu per capita. And at 200,000 it would be 50 to 100,000 worst flu season including 1957 Asian flu and 1968 Hong Kong flu. The real question do we continue to crash the economy and delay the reopening?

There are trade offs. We are talking 5 per 1000 vs the flu 1 per 1000. So to save those 4 from the virus, how many will die as result of economic downturn including increase suicides, starvation, delay treatment for health issues and drug overdoses?

Will it be more than the 4 per 1000 we are saving from the virus? Not an easy question to answer and the consequences from the economic downturn will be worse than continue lockdown. Your thoughts?

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