Category: science

Political Science of Climate Change

We have seen through the the past 18 months, how science has become politicized. What we have also seen, bad policies still being pursued.

A few observations on Climate science

  1. Michael Shellenberger in his book Apocalypse Never, acknowledge that much of the doom day prediction was mostly B .S. (Shellenberger still believes in AGW and that man is responsible for climate change but he is also apologizing for the scare tactics.
  2. Shellenberger notes that wind and solar by themselves are incapable of powering a modern economy and advocate for nuclear energy. https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2021/04/why-wind-and-solar-energy-are-doomed-to-failure.php
  3. This recent piece details California failures in energy policy. https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2021/04/why-wind-and-solar-energy-are-doomed-to-failure.php
  4. Steve Hayward details the issues with the science. https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2021/08/a-new-crisis-for-climate-science.php
  5. Changes in climate have happened in the past so what we are witnessing is what this planet witness in the past. https://notrickszone.com/2021/07/29/there-were-23-global-warming-jolts-many-times-faster-and-greater-than-modern-during-the-last-glacial/
  6. What the alarmist can’t answer is why our planet has been greening (hint: the increase of C02 is one reason.) https://notrickszone.com/2021/02/24/nasa-vegetation-index-globe-continues-rapid-greening-trend-sahara-alone-shrinks-700000-sq-km/ and https://notrickszone.com/2020/03/19/earth-is-greening-due-to-rising-co2-a-growing-greening-sink-offsets-17-years-of-equivalent-co2-emissions-by-2100/
  7. Climate alarmist don’t understand how this planet has seen the middle class increased by hundred of millions, poverty has decreased by two thirds, we are eating better diet than ever before and all health indexes are better with a population double we had 60 years ago. The reason is simple: human ingenuity.
  8. So major predictions have proven wrong.
  9. The only way we will see the disaster that alarmist predicts is we adopt their solutions to “save the world.” Massive famine and poverty will occur adopting the “Capitalist reset”, socialism and more government interventionist policy. Think Venezuela.
  10. United States have lowered CO2 emissions due to technology like fracking and use of natural gas. I could go but you get the point. Bad science produces bad policies.

What we know and should know

For the past two weeks, we have had special programs on Corona Virus and what we should know about the virus including all the right lesson.

  1. This is a virus that the IFR is around .2 to .4 or 2 to 4 per 1000. The past decade the average flu season was 1 per 1000 with ranges from 3 per 10,000 to 1.7 per 1000 in 2018. The later is close to the IFR of Corona virus. The 1957 pandemic was at least 2 per 1000 and maybe 3 per 1000 so we have has seen flu pandemics similar to Coronavirus. We are talking a virus that ranges from 1 to 3 per 1000 more than past flu season and significantly lower than the 1918-1920 Spanish flu pandemic.
  2. Corona virus has high incidence of serious illness with the elderly, those with underlying condition as well as being overweight. The flu hurts the young more.
  3. The lockdown was complete failure and there should be no doubt on that. Our own data has shown that there have been no significant difference in deaths between Lockdown and non-lockdown states as well as Democrat versus Republican states but Republican states and non lockdown states have lower unemployment rates compared to lockdown and Democratic states.
  4. I have been vaccinated and would recommend others to do the same but I will not force anyone to get a vaccines. Contact your doctor and decide on the risk versus benefits. One example was the drummer Peter Parada, drummer of the Offspring. In his own words, “Given my personal medical history and the side-effect profile of these jabs, my doctor has advised me not to get a shot at this time. I caught the virus over a year ago, it was mild for me – so I am confident I’d be able to handle it again, but I’m not so certain I’d survive another post-vaccination round of Guillain-Barré Syndrome, which dates back to my childhood and has evolved to be progressively worse over my lifetime. Unfortunately for me, (and my family – who is hoping to keep me around a bit longer) the risks far outweigh the benefits.” He has been kicked out of the band and he does have immunity due to having been exposed to the virus. No one should be forced to vaccinated.
  5. No vaccine passports. Denying some one access to restaurants, job opportunities, and other enjoyments impacts minorities and lower class who are less likely to be vaccinated. https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2021/08/04/dr-drew-vaccine-passports-are-modern-day-segregation/ and https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2021/08/04/bostons-democrat-mayor-compares-nyc-vaccine-mandate-to-slavery/ This point was made by John Phelan on our show today.
  6. Delta virus according to British data is less lethal and with less hospitalization. We are talking 1/5th as lethal with 1/2 of the hospitalization. The lethal is similar to mild flu season. Hardly a threat and not enough of a threat to lockdown or mask mandates.
  7. There is no real data showing mask mandates or closing schools are beneficial to stopping the spread but there is enough data to show closing schools have a negative impact on students as they fall behind. A Democrat school board who happens to be a Doctor told me he saw no reason to force mask on children but he was out voted on mask and agreed to a mask mandates because he felt it was important to open the schools five days a week. Call it a compromise but unfortunately panic has produced bad policies.
  8. As one Biden advisor admitted, cloth masks are ineffective against the virus. It is nothing more than a placebo.
  9. This is no longer about science but control of the population. I made this point and I will make it again. Fauci is a mediocre scientist who has done more damage to the credibility of science. And those who support masking school children and lockdowns are ignoring the science. Period.

Fauci, is he really a mediocre scientist?

When I think of Fauci, I think of the line in Men in Black where Zed the leader noted, to candidates rejected as MIB agents: “Gentlemen, congratulations. You’re everything we’ve come to expect from years of government training. Now please step this way, as we provide you with our final test: an eye exam…”

That is Fauci, he is everything we have come to expect from government training and work. He has been a disaster as a public health officials but it hasn’t cost him anything, certainly not his job. Among his mistakes:

  1. He overestimated the IFR of the virus by a factor of 3 to 5.
  2. Propose the lockdown and never backed off
  3. His position on masks were confusing and often wrong .
  4. He should have known that the Chinese lab was the origin of the virus or he did but did nothing.
  5. He admitted to lying on occasion since we couldn’t have handle the truth.

He has been a disaster. Period.

Lessons that need to be learned

The most important lesson to learn is that lockdown were a complete failure! There is enough data to show that more people will die as result of the lockdown than lives saved. One study showed that over the next two decades 1.3 million will die prematurely or had already died, more than doubled what number died from corona virus. Below, we saw younger patients already suffered.

As our data has shown, the economic damage were worse in more restricted states without any decrease in deaths. With no difference in deaths among the less restricted and more restricted, the failure of lockdowns becomes obvious.

View it this way, the average flu season Infectious fatality rate over the past decade was .1 or 1 per thousands with ranges from .03 to .17. (3 per 10,000 in 2009 or 1.7 per 1000 in 2018) The pandemic of 1957 and 1968 were at least .2 or 2 per 1000 if not little higher. It is estimated on a per capita basis, 160,000 to 200,000 deaths today. (It should be noted that the population were younger and most likely healthier so that would explain some of the differences in death.)

While Fauci testify that this virus would be ten times the flu in March of 2020, he proved to be wrong. IFR proved to shown .2 to .4 (2 to 4 per thousands). Fauci was off by 2.5 to 5 times his testimony. This miscalculation laid the basis for the lockdown. The original lockdown was designed for 15 days and if they had happened, we were recovered quickly. This was more a natural disaster and our economy was strong enough to recover quickly. As I have shown, we should be around 4% unemployment and a strong recovery going more broader than what we are witnessing.

This virus was not the Spanish flu as the Spanish flu killed on a per capita basis at least three times the present deaths and IFR lower. Other than many of the elderly, most age group would be close or lower than the flu. Strange virus compared to the flu.

Bottom line you don’t crash an economy for a virus that at worse would kill 4 per 1000. And by concentrating on most vulnerable, lives will be save and we can get back to normal.

Mixed States data

Comparing states with all Republican control of government, all Democrats controlled and states with mixed control. GOP had 4.2% unemployment, mixed governance with 5.1% while Democrats 6.6%. When we added both mixed and Republicans, the overall unemployment was 4.4%.

Mixed governance and GOP were significantly lower than the national average while Democrats were above. GOP were 17% less unemployment than mixed and 36% of Democrats.

If Democrats were similar to Mixed governments or closer to GOP, the unemployment should be under 5% and closer to 4%.

Mixed had 4.5% less death per capita and 5.4% less than Democratic states. Mixed governance had less death per capita vs either GOP or Democratic states. 8 to 10 deaths per 100,000 less.

GOP had superior economic data but mixed government had unemployment superior full blue states and less death per capital of both GOP and Democrats.

Data death per capita updated

In all of our studies, we found you had to get out to deaths per million. For example in our 50 states comparing Republican to Democratic governors. both groups had 171 per 100,000 but when you push it to a million, Blue states had 6 per million less deaths which represent a .4 percent difference. Within the margin of error.

Among the divided states, Red States had 176 deaths per 100,000 versus 178 deaths per 100,000 in blue states. Less than 3% difference and not a statistically difference. At a deaths per million it represent 20 deaths more per million.

Only among the bigger states did you see some significant difference as Bigger Red States had 14% less deaths! Overall to be on the conservative side, we didn’t see a significant difference between Red and Blue States on deaths from Covid virus but as we already seen, there were a significant difference in unemployment favoring Republican states.

Recent data on state comparison for unemployment

This data shows unemployment comparison between different studies, the first was comparison lockdown to non-lockdown states or those states who lockdown last fall. Non Lockdown states average 4.2% unemployment vs 5.4% for a 23% difference.

The second study was comparison of states with Republican governors versus Democratic governors. Republican states had a 4.4% vs 6% for a 27% difference.

The third study compared the top 8 populous states, four with Republican governors and four with Democratic governors. GOP states had 5.1% unemployment and 7.4% for Democratic states for 31% differences.

The fourth studies compared Republican or Democratic states defined as controlling all branch government and there were mixed states, where you had both parties controlling aspect of branches. Red States, 4.2% vs 6.6% for blue states for a 36% difference.

Red States and non lockdown states out performed blue states and lockdown states in reducing unemployment since the beginning of the Pandemic with ranges from 23% to 36% difference in less unemployment!

China lab matters

The revelation that Dr. Fauci was warned about the possibility of a Chinese lab accident causing the release of the Wuhan Virus is bad enough but the efforts to undermine any serious investigation is even worse.

This reflects on something possibility deeper, the foreign policy, scientific class and political class refusal to confront China. Pointing out China responsibility was declared racist but now it is time to accept the reality, China is responsible. It is not racist to point out who started this pandemic, it is truth.

How you can tell a fraudulent Climate science argument.

First rule of telling a fraudulent climate science argument. They use the word denier. There are two things about this phrase. First, it is attempt to compare those who disagree with their view that the world is about to end due to global warming to Nazis. Second, it is scientifically inaccurate.

There are four schools dealing with climate science but there is one important idea, all of the schools of thoughts agree that climate is changing and mostly likely warming. No serious scientists disagree that climate is changing or vast majority view the long term trend is warming.

First school is the alarmist school that global warming is man-made and very bad. The end of the world is near, bla, bla, bla. This is the school the media pays the most attention but the science is totally wrong since much of their predictions have proven to be wrong. For the past three decades, the planet is getting greener, we are feeding more people healthier diets than ever before and every major economic and health metrics have improved. None of this was even predicated because of human ability to adopt and come up with solutions.

Second school believes humans are to blame for present warming but we have plenty of time to deal with the issues. They oppose the use of some fossil fuels but will work with natural gas and are big advocates of nuclear energy. Michael Shellenberger is a example of this school. They don’t buy into replacing our present energy choices with wind and solar since they correctly understand that wind and solar by themselves are incapable of keeping a modern day economy going.

Third school is that human are involved with changing climate but there are natural events that have to be considered. They rely on many solid science to back their concern including the history of this planet. They are not certain that human involvement is that bad. Some within this group view that CO2 levels maybe good for the planet (William Happier is an example of this.) They don’t oppose the use of different mix of energy and like group two, will support a move away from oil and coal toward nuclear energy and natural gas. Think Judith Curry as example of this group.

Fourth school view that much of the climate change is a natural event that has been part of this planet for millions of years and don’t view human contribution as significant. The late Fred Singer is example of this group.

I alternate between the third and fourth school. As I stated in a soon to be published book, that the only way we will get the economic depression, massive starvation and the negative impact of droughts if we actually restrict economic growth to “to save the planet.” Pass the Green New Deal, depend upon wind and solar as oppose to fossil fuels and Nuclear and you will see massive starvation as our economy will go back to a 19th century economy that barely fed one seventh of our present world population.

We have seen a scientific class that has allowed personal agendas and political views to impact the science. Political operatives and activist determine the science not the science helping to determine policies. We saw this in the recent Wuhan virus pandemics.

If a person uses the word denier, he or she is either ill informed or just plain demagogues. The consensus is that the planet climate is changing and we may be in a warmer trend. The real debate is why and what is proper mix of economic policies to ensure our continue economic growth and not set our present economy to a more primitive economy where billions will die.